Where is the market headed?
It was a quiet day in the markets today. The Nifty was up, along with large caps and Bank Nifty, but mid and small caps took a bit of a hit. There wasn’t any major news in the market, but earnings results have started to come in. By next week, we will probably have a clearer idea of whether most companies are meeting expectations or not.
Gold and silver continued their strong performance. Gold was around ₹4,380 this morning, which is surprising because just last week it was below ₹4,000. The speed at which gold is rising is impressive for investors but also a bit concerning.
When prices move this fast, it usually signals that something deeper in the system might be breaking. Such rapid moves can lead to problems for hedge funds or banks, as positions get trapped on the wrong side of the trade.
Market Overview
The Nifty continues to perform well. The next big trigger to watch is the India–U.S. tariff meeting. If there is any confirmation that there won’t be punitive tariffs on India, we could easily see Nifty at an all-time high. Bank Nifty, in fact, has already hit a new all-time high and often leads the overall market trend, both upward and downward. Right now, it seems to be leading the market upward once again.
Nifty was up about half a percent today, showing a strong rally since the end of September. October has turned out to be a fantastic month so far, with almost 1,200 points gained. That’s quite fascinating because October is usually considered one of the most volatile months historically.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior was flat, Midcaps were down 0.5%, and Small caps were down 0.24%.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Bank Nifty
The main action was in Bank Nifty, which rose 0.51% to 57,700 — another record high.
GOLD
Gold is now around ₹1,30,000 per 10 grams as per the official calculated price, with some premium on top of that. Just two months ago, gold was below ₹1,00,000, which means a 30% gain in less than two months — an exceptional move.
SILVER
Silver has also surged dramatically, moving from ₹1,10,000 in August to ₹1,62,000 now, with actual market prices touching ₹1,70,000–₹1,80,000. Such disruptive price moves have created instability in derivative and ETF markets.
Advance Decline Ratio
The broader market breadth today was weak, with 159 advances against 340 declines.
Heat Maps
IT stocks were hit hard — HCL Tech, Infosys, and Wipro were among the losers. On the positive side, FMCG names like ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle, and Tata Consumer were doing well. Other gainers included Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, Reliance, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank.
Among Nifty Next stocks, most were in red except for Adani Power, TVS Motors, Britannia, and Pidilite. Adani Green, Vedanta, Hindustan Zinc, and several Real Estate stocks lost ground.
Mover Of The Day
The biggest mover of the day was Whirlpool of India, which jumped 12% after news of a strategic licensing agreement. The stock had been dull for quite some time, so this was a strong comeback.
Sectoral Overview
Looking at sectoral trends, Nifty IT was down 1.6%, Nifty Media down 1.5%, and Nifty Metals down 0.8%. On the gaining side, FMCG led with a 1.3% rise, followed by Consumption (1.1%), Pharma (0.6%), and Autos (0.6%). FMCG has been making a solid comeback over the last three days with strong performances from Radico, Emami, ITC, and Hindustan Unilever.
Sector of the Day
Nifty FMCG Index
Nifty IT Index
U.S. Market
In global markets, U.S. indices were down in the last session — Russell 2000 fell 2%, NASDAQ 0.54%, and Dow Jones 0.6%. Many experts, including the IMF, have predicted that the U.S. market should fall. But when everyone expects a fall, it often doesn’t happen.
The real movement depends on base money. If more money is injected into the system, asset prices may stay flat while the currency’s value falls. So even if markets don’t drop in dollar terms, they can still lose value in real terms. It’s possible that U.S. markets will just stagnate at current levels while other asset classes like gold and silver keep rising.
Some major U.S. stocks like Capital One, MetLife, Citigroup, and Bank of America were down 3–5%. Thankfully, none of these are part of the portfolios managed under Weekend Investing’s U.S. strategies.
Tweets Of the Day
One interesting point from today’s tweets was about Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs). An October 2017–18 issue was redeemed yesterday, and the results were remarkable. The issue price was ₹2,866 per gram, while the redemption price was ₹12,567 per gram — a 338% absolute return in eight years, plus 2.5% annual interest. The capital gain is tax-free, while the annual interest was taxable. This shows how rewarding SGBs have been for investors.
However, every coin has two sides. While investors earned great returns, the Government of India and the Reserve Bank — who issued these bonds — ended up on the losing side. Essentially, this money comes from taxpayers. Those who are taxpayers and SGB holders have paid themselves, but others have gained at taxpayers’ expense. The RBI likely underestimated gold’s long-term strength when the scheme was launched. They assumed gold prices would stay flat, but the market proved otherwise. It’s unlikely that such generous SGB schemes will ever return.
A look at the Silver Bees ETF chart shows that premiums began rising from early October, and recently those who bought at higher premiums are now at a loss despite rising silver prices. This happens because India doesn’t have a national gold or silver exchange. Different cities trade at different premiums, making it hard to know the real spot price. A proper exchange, like the stock market, would help standardize prices across the country.
When markets become disruptive, paper-based investments like ETFs and futures can deviate sharply from real-world prices. We saw something similar in April 2020, when crude oil futures went negative due to oversupply. Such extreme events show that paper assets can sometimes behave unpredictably. ETFs are convenient, but they are not the same as holding the physical asset. There is always a small risk, however unlikely, that the underlying metal might not be there.
