Where is the market headed?
The big news today was about Sebi absolving the Adani Group of any wrongdoing. Adani’s stocks had been under pressure due to the earlier Hindenburg conspiracy and several allegations. But now they stand vindicated and clear of all charges. It has taken nearly three and a half years for them to come out of this shadow. Naturally, several Adani stocks started moving up today and it looks like they may continue without any hindrance from here.
However, this positive development in Adani was not enough to stop profit booking in other sectors. I have been saying for many days, and even showed in a separate video, that after Fed rate cuts, markets usually don’t take off. There is a common belief that when interest rates are cut, equity markets must go up, but history shows otherwise. In fact, in the last 20 years, it has never happened that way. If it happens this time, it will be an exception. The markets have sold off after the Fed news, and it took a day or so for them to absorb it.
There was also another piece of good news today – US-India trade talks may get resolved by October or November. That was significant, but still, the markets sold off. This shows how markets can surprise you. Many people might have entered today expecting markets to rise on positive headlines, but much of it had already been discounted. That’s why one should not react to news alone. It’s always better to follow the market trends, because news usually follows those trends, not the other way around.
Market Overview
Looking at the numbers, Nifty closed down by 0.38%. It may feel like a fall, but nothing is really lost. We are just down from yesterday’s high, and if we look at the movement of the past 10 to 14 days, the market has already done very well. Markets usually move in a cycle of two steps forward and one step back. It is possible that we may go back to recent highs or even shoot up from here after this two-day rest. Prediction never works in markets, so I will not try to guess.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior, however, bucked the trend and was up by 0.58%. This was also the MSCI readjustment day, so Nifty might have been under some pressure because of that.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Midcaps were flat at 0.01% and small caps too at 0.14%.
Bank Nifty
Banks were down by 0.48%.
GOLD
Gold stayed steady, up only 0.28% in the last two sessions, but importantly, gold is holding near 11,000 per gram. With the current premiums, there seem to be tailwinds for gold going forward.
Advance Decline Ratio
The advance-decline ratio was very even with 262 advances versus 239 declines, showing no major change.
Heat Maps
On the Nifty heatmap, apart from Adani Enterprises which was up 5%, not many stocks moved up. SBI, Shriram Finance, and Bharti Airtel gained around 1% each. But HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, HCLTech, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Bajaj Auto, Reliance, Mahindra, and Power Grid all moved down.
In Nifty Next 50, Swiggy, Hyundai, Torrent Pharma, and the Adani group stocks did well, while Indigo, Zydus Life, DLF, Bajaj Holdings, and ICICI declined.
Mover Of The Day
Adani Power stood out, jumping 12.36% after the clean chit, which was a big surprise even though the stock had been gradually gaining earlier.
Sectoral Overview
Sector-wise, PSU banks led the day with 1.28% gains. On a weekly basis, they are also the top performers with a strong 4.83% rise. Real estate followed with 4.43% gains, while energy stocks rose 0.86%. Defense, pharma, and real estate added about half a percent. On the losing side, media dropped half a percent, financial services and private banks were weak, largely due to FII selling. Analysts like Chris Woods of CLSA also hinted that private banks may struggle going forward, while PSU banks are catching up.
Sector of the Day
Nifty PSU Bank Index
Union Bank, IOB, and Punjab & Sind Bank were among the notable PSU bank gainers.
Tweets Of the Day
On the global side, Alok Jain shared a tweet showing that Japanese stock markets cracked 2.5% today, while Japanese bond yields hit record highs. With Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio at 239%, even a small rise in yields can destabilize the system. At lower debt ratios like 60–80%, such moves are manageable, but at 230% levels, it becomes extremely difficult. This is something that could also play out in the US, where debt levels are already very high.
Another interesting tweet compared gold with Oktoberfest beer mugs over the years. In 1975, one unit of gold could buy 105 mugs of beer, in 1985 it went up to 153, then dropped to 53, and now it is around 186 mugs. The point is clear – gold has always managed to keep up with or beat inflation. My father used to say something similar: one plate of dinner at a five-star hotel in Delhi has always roughly cost one gram of gold, whether it was 20 rupees in the 80s, 400 in the 90s, 1200 in the 2000s, or now 8–10,000 rupees.
Gold continues to hold its purchasing power across generations. Globally, one ounce of gold has often equaled the cost of one good suit, and that balance has remained stable over decades.
