The markets finally gave a sigh of relief after Friday’s move, which helped close a downside gap. Markets initially went down in the morning but then rebounded, rising above the previous day’s high and almost reaching the gap above. The 23,345 level is neither particularly good nor particularly bad. However, it provides a good place for consolidation, much like we saw earlier when we were trying to build a base for a move higher. We might consolidate here too, and the more time we spend at this level, the more it could help if we eventually move higher.

Today, we’ll discuss a remarkable 455% move in under three days—this involves the Trump Coin.

Where is the market headed?

Market Overview

That said, if the 23,000 level we hit five days ago breaks, then the market will likely head lower. With Trump set to speak tonight, and reports that over 100 executive orders might be passed in the first week alone, next week could bring some surprises. While it’s uncertain whether there will be any major tariffs on India or China, Trump has already mentioned that he plans to visit China and possibly India within the first 100 days. This suggests that the aggressive tone we saw weeks ago might be mellowing out.

Nifty Next 50

Nifty was up 0.61%, with Nifty Junior almost flat, posting a 0.08% gain.

Nifty Mid and Small Cap

Nifty Midcap rose by 0.7%, marking the fifth consecutive day of gains, which is very good news. The steepness of the recent fall has kept nerves on edge, but if we can form a lower high on any pullback and then move higher, it would offer confirmation. However, nobody is complaining about this pullback. Small caps also gained 0.8%. The budget, which isn’t far away, could be contributing to some nervousness among short-sellers, who may be wary of a potential short squeeze if the budget turns out to be positive.

Nifty Bank Overview

The Bank Nifty also moved up, largely due to strong numbers from Kotak Bank. We’re nearing the 50,000 mark for Bank Nifty, and stabilization is taking place at this level with a 1.6% increase.

Advanced Declined Ratio Trends

The advanced/decline ratio favored the bulls, with 316 advances to 180 declines.

Nifty Heatmap

State Bank of India had an impressive 1.98% gain, and Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv both rose by around 3.5%. Kotak Bank surged 9%, and HDFC and ICICI Bank were also up. Wipro, after its results, saw a rise of 6%.

However, ITC, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Maruti were down. In the Nifty Next 50 space, Zomato reported poor results, contributing to a 3% decline in its stock. Union Bank, Canara Bank, and Bank of Baroda did well in the PSU banking space, while Lodha and DLF saw strong performances in real estate. Public sector and energy stocks also moved up, alongside capital goods and some insurance companies. On the downside, Adani stocks saw losses.

Sectoral Overview

Private banking, thanks to Kotak Bank, was up by 2.4%. PSU banks gained, led by State Bank of India, which rose 2%, helping Bank Nifty rise 1.7%. The public sector and PSU stocks were up by 1.3%, while metals, energy, and commodities also posted slight gains. The week gone by has started to look better overall, although real estate has been the biggest laggard over the past month, down 10%. Sectors like autos, consumption, FMCG, IT, and Pharma were muted for the day.

Even if the markets were to consolidate for the next 10 days leading up to the budget, I believe the market may not mind that.

Sectors of the Day

Nifty IT Index

In the private banking space, we saw positive moves in stocks like IOB, Yuko Bank, Canara Bank, Central Bank, and Union Bank. Both PSU and private banks seem to be moving upwards.

Story of the Day : Are you able to stay with the strength in the market?

Now, let’s move on to the Trump Coin. To be clear, I have never traded in cryptocurrency, and I’m no expert on the subject, but here’s what I’m observing as a layman. It seems like we’re witnessing the gamification of money—where anything can be created overnight. A new coin can be launched, and before you know it, it has a multi-billion dollar market cap. The liquidity in the market is driving this phenomenon, as capital moves between coins and asset classes. This is purely momentum-based trading, and there’s no denying that.

But many people are getting sucked into this FOMO, and who else to blame? The President of the United States himself is promoting it. Trump recently tweeted from his official account, introducing the Trump Coin with a message about “celebrating everything, standing for winning, and joining the Trump community.” The coin immediately saw a rise, reaching a $14-$15 billion market cap within a day, sending the crypto world into a frenzy. Investors are making big profits, with some stories of people turning a few hundred thousand dollars into hundreds of millions.

In just three days, Trump Coin saw massive volatility: a 240% rise, followed by a 40% drop, then another 250% rise, followed by a 50% drop, and a 60% rise—all in hours, not days or weeks. Unless you’re a genius short-term trader, it’s hard to keep up with this kind of action. On the one hand, it’s fascinating to watch new instruments being created out of thin air, with no backing of any kind. But we’re also witnessing pure supply-demand forces at play, and there’s no denying that demand is driving this.

However, it’s clear that these coins are becoming increasingly abundant. Today, it’s Trump Coin; tomorrow, it could be Millennia Coin, the First Lady’s coin. The next day, who knows what will come up. I’m not sure how to view this as a long-term investment, but if you’re going to treat it as a game, it’s like going to Las Vegas: you know that you’re risking money for a thrill. The results are likely to end with a hole in your pocket.

The market cap and volume of these coins are astonishing. From virtually zero to a $15 billion market cap in no time is mind-boggling. How many companies in India have a $15 billion market cap? The liquidity is immense, with $52 billion of trade happening in just 24 hours on this coin alone. Stories of huge profits are enticing more people, especially youngsters, to dive in, hoping to make quick money. This is absolutely crazy.

That said, a lot of people will hate me for this video, but I’m just giving my perspective. To give some credit to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin at least has a limited supply, and it’s trying to serve as a real currency in places like El Salvador. Ethereum and a few others are also contributing to real projects. But these meme coins? This is pure gamification, and I think it’s important to call it what it is. Comparing this to option markets, at least in options, the price has some basis—there’s an underlying asset. With these coins, there’s no real price foundation, just pure speculation.

The Trump Coin has a total supply of a billion coins, but only 20% has been released. Whoever controls it can keep supplying and profiting. The next few years will likely tell us if this experiment lasts. If this were an Indian concept, I’m certain the Supreme Court would have taken swift action. But in the U.S., it seems anyone can do anything.

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