Where is the market headed?
Markets remained largely stagnant and dull, with some parts giving up ground while the overall environment stayed flattish. A recent news item highlighted that retail investors have cashed out of the cash markets for the first time in 2025 since the COVID-19 period. While this has raised concerns about domestic supplies shrinking, the data suggests otherwise. Money flow continues to move steadily through domestic fund routes, which remains a very stable trend.
Investors are encouraged to understand that the seeds of the next bull run, whether it occurs in 2026, 2027, or 2028, are being sown right now. Many people believe they will buy once the bull run starts, but history shows this rarely happens for over 99% of people. This is due to anchoring bias; once an investor sees a stock at 100 rupees and it quickly moves to 125, they often find themselves unable to buy. True investments must be made during the consolidation phase. Similar to the growth of a bamboo tree, which requires years of waiting before it suddenly shoots up, market participants must be patient.
Market Overview
Looking at the specific market charts, the Nifty was very flat for the second day in a row, closing down 0.13%. Trading volumes were lower due to the holiday, which is typical for this time of year.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior was down 0.2%, mid-caps fell 0.47%, and Bank Nifty decreased by 0.2%, while small-caps saw a tiny gain of 0.06%.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Bank Nifty
GOLD
While stocks were quiet, gold and silver continued to make new highs. Gold reached 1,37,50,000 rupees per kilogram, and silver reached 2,20,745 per kilogram. These daily highs in precious metals suggest that all is not well in the world and may point toward extreme events on the horizon. There is a high likelihood that a dovish Federal Reserve chairman will be appointed soon, leading to interest rate cuts in the United States. This cycle is expected to fuel precious metals, stock markets, and real estate globally.
SILVER
Advance Decline Ratio
The advance-decline trend for the day was not particularly strong. Although the day started with high advances, they declined over the hours while declines increased, ending at 176 advances to 324 declines.
Heat Maps
The Nifty heat map showed losses for Reliance, Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Consumer, Dr. Reddy’s, Sun Pharma, and SBI. On the positive side, Shriram Finance, Bajaj Auto, and TCS saw small gains.
In the Nifty Next 50, commodities like Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta ran up, as did Chola Finance and Shree Cements. Losses were noted in oil majors, United Spirits, Siemens, and some public sector banks.
Mover Of The Day
In the mover of the day segment, VIP Industries jumped 11.6% following a significant block deal where 26% of the equity changed hands.
Sectoral Overview
Regarding sectoral trends, the capital market index lost 0.9%, while oil and gas, pharma, and IT lost half a percent or more. Media, defense, real estate, and metals saw minor gains.
Sector of the Day
Nifty Capital Market Index
U.S. Market
In the U.S. markets on the previous day, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 moved up nearly half a percent, while the Russell 2000 broader index was down 0.7%. Stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, Amazon, and Alphabet saw upward movement. It should be noted that some of these stocks may be part of specific company investment strategies, though these are not recommendations.
Tweet Of The Day
Finally, a common topic of discussion is the long-term performance of stocks versus housing. While some argue that a house is not an asset and that people should prioritize stock portfolios over buying a home, the reality is more complex. Historical charts show that from 1971 to 1994, the housing market actually performed better than the stock market.
For an investor starting their career during that period, housing would have been the better bet for 25 years. Additionally, the stock market had a long period between 2000 and 2013 where it did not perform well. Real estate also provides a form of forced savings through EMI payments. While equities are a better performing vehicle over the very long term, both assets have distinct roles in a person’s life. It is not an “either-or” situation; a healthy financial plan should ideally include both a home and a great investment portfolio.
