Where is the market headed?
The markets were quite dull today. The earlier optimism around the US–India treaty has faded again after Piyush Goyal mentioned that things will move step by step and take time. The rest of Asia also looked weak and quiet. It felt like investors simply didn’t have the energy to push any segment higher today.
Market Overview
Looking at the charts, it seems like yesterday was a “sell on news” kind of day. The excitement about the US trade deal probably peaked then. Now, no one is even talking about it anymore, even though nothing concrete has happened. There was a small gap in the market three days back which has now been filled, and the index has cooled off. Maybe next week, we’ll see another attempt to go higher. The market doesn’t look weak, just pausing for breath. Nifty was down 0.37%.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior was flat at 0.11%, Midcaps dipped 0.22%, and Small caps were down 0.15%.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Bank Nifty
The Nifty Bank index fell by 0.65%, which is a meaningful move over the last two sessions. Given how much it had run up earlier, a bit of consolidation seems fair and healthy at this point.
GOLD
Gold prices have also come off their highs. From around ₹131,000 per 10 grams, gold has now dropped close to ₹121,000. This is actually good news—it gives buyers another chance to enter at more sensible prices. The long-term trend, however, still seems bullish. JP Morgan has put out a target of $8,000 for 2028, and other big names like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley also have higher price targets. Of course, these reports could be wrong, but the main logic is simple: as long as fiscal deficits and money printing continue, gold will likely keep rising.
SILVER
Silver, too, has cooled from ₹164,000 to ₹143,000. Coming back to long-term averages is healthy for any bull run.
Advance Decline Ratio
Today’s advance-decline ratio was very poor. It was weak right from the morning, ending at 167 advances against 332 declines.
Heat Maps
The Nifty heat map showed several stocks being badly hit. Hindustan Unilever dropped 3.2%, which is significant. State Bank of India was down almost 1%, Kotak Bank fell 2%, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank were down about 1.3% each. These big names dragged the index lower.
In the Nifty Next 50, Chola Finance and Vedanta saw some gains, but many others like LIC, Ambuja Cement, Varun Beverages, Motherson, CG Power, PNB, Hyundai, Dmart, and LTIM slipped.
Mover Of The Day
The mover of the day was Shipping Corporation, which shot up 10%. This is another example of the “BBC – Bhao Bhagwan Che” principle at work. There’s probably some news brewing—perhaps a privatization or stake sale—and the market seems to have caught the scent. The stock has jumped from ₹230 to ₹274 in just two sessions.
Sectoral Overview
Among sectors, Nifty Metal was the only strong performer with a 1% gain. On the downside, private banks, FMCG, PSU banks, and capital markets were all down by half a percent or more.
Looking at broader trends, over the past month, real estate and capital markets have performed well with around 8% returns, while the media sector has been the weakest. Over the past six months, metals, defense, auto, capital markets, and PSU banks have done very well. And in the last one year, defense has gained 32%, capital markets 26%, and PSU banks 21%. This clearly shows how different sectors take turns leading the market. Having a strategy that rotates between sectors as leadership changes is very important.
Sector of the Day
Nifty Metal Index
Metals tried to make a new high today and briefly did, but the follow-through was weak. Stocks like Hindustan Copper, Hindalco, National Aluminium, Vedanta, and Lloyds Metal did well, though the candles weren’t showing strong conviction.
U.S. Market
In the US, markets continued to recover. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, Dow Jones 0.25%, Nasdaq nearly 1%, and the Russell index also bounced back. Over the past month, the S&P is up 1.5%, Nasdaq and Russell around 2%. Over the past year, Nasdaq has gained 25% and the S&P 16%, which is quite impressive.
Stocks like Honeywell, Intuitive, Intel, Conoco, and GE Aerospace are doing well in the US markets, with Honeywell showing a strong breakout. Weekend Investing also runs a US portfolio on the Vested platform for those interested in exploring that space.
Tweets Of the Day
One of today’s tweets showed how sharply Nifty stocks fell during the 2008 global financial crisis. Between January and October 2008, stocks like Unitech fell 91%, Suzlon 87%, Reliance Infra 86%, Tata Steel 82%, DLF 81%, Tata Motors 81%, and Hindalco 75%. Even HDFC Bank dropped 46% and TCS 52%. It’s hard to imagine these kinds of moves today, but they did happen. The lesson is simple—no stock is invincible. Markets can humble anyone. Always stay humble, plan carefully, and maintain proper asset allocation.
The next tweet was a motivational one by James Clear. It said that every day you should spend time on two things: working on something that will pay off years from now, and appreciating something happening right now. In market terms, this means sticking to your process daily, even when results aren’t instant. Following a disciplined system gives you peace of mind and long-term success. Many people don’t have that structure and are just chasing trades blindly. If you have a plan and follow it every day, you are already ahead of most.
