As we wrap up the last session of the month and the year, it’s safe to say that we’re ending on a decent note. While certain pockets of the market haven’t performed as expected, the fact that we’ve been riding the rally for so long means we were bound to see some pullbacks. A bit of a sweet breaker was always on the cards.

Where is the market headed?

Market Overview

The Nifty 50 is down by 0.31% today. Over the past three sessions, it reached close to 23,900, but has since pulled back by about 400 points. Considering the strength of the recent rally, a correction of 3-400 points isn’t too concerning. In fact, what we’re seeing now could be the beginning of a right shoulder in an inverted head and shoulders pattern. If the market manages to push past 23,800, we could see a strong rally, provided it’s backed by strong volumes and the right shoulder remains tight. As long as yesterday’s low holds, things are looking relatively safe.

Expect the market to consolidate between 23,400 and 23,800 for the foreseeable future. As we head into April, we’ll start seeing quarterly and year-end results come in, along with the RBI meeting. These could serve as key indicators for market movement in the coming months.

Nifty Next 50

In terms of indices, the Nifty Junior is down 0.63%, but it remains stable in the consolidation zone at 63,000.

Nifty Mid and Small Cap

The Midcap index is down by 0.29%, and the Smallcap index is flat.

Nifty Bank Overview

Similarly, the Bank Nifty is largely unchanged, down only 0.02%.

GOLD

On the commodities front, gold continues its upward trend, up 0.32%, and reached a new high of ₹90,000. In dollar terms, gold has hit $3,071, marking a new all-time high. Many institutions have set target prices of $3,200 to $3,400 for gold in 2025, and with a long-term CAGR of 12-14%, it’s possible we could see prices hit ₹6,000 by the end of the decade.

Advance Decline Ratio

The market breadth has softened compared to yesterday. Today, there are 190 advances and 310 declines—a decline from yesterday’s 2,327 advances.

Heat Maps

IT stocks took a hit, with Wipro down 3.6%, Infosys down 2%, and HCL Tech and TCS also showing losses. The auto sector also saw declines, with Maruti and Bajaj Auto both struggling. Similarly, Cipla and Dr. Reddy were hit within the pharma space.

On the positive side, Tata Consumer performed well, and ICICI Bank and Kotak Bank showed gains, with Kotak Bank continuing to perform strongly. However, the Nifty Next 50 index saw more widespread red, with stocks like Lodha, ICICI Proli, LTIM, DV’s Lab, Somato, and Adani Power all experiencing declines.

Sectoral Overview

In terms of broader sectors, real estate fell by 1.8%, and autos were down by 1.4%. The ongoing tariff issues and the 25% executive order on non-US-based automobiles entering the US are causing ripple effects, especially if reciprocal tariffs are imposed by the US on Indian manufacturers. The metals sector also took a hit, down 0.7%, while pharma and tourism sectors showed losses across the board.

In conclusion, today has been a relatively negative day for the markets, with only the capital markets segment standing out due to specific news about BSE. Stocks like CDSL, MCX, and Anandrati performed well in this space.

Sectors of the Day

Nifty Capital Market Index

One notable sector today is the Capital Market segment, which moved up 3.2%. This comes on the back of a consultation paper released by SEBI, which is urging exchanges to standardize the expiry dates for benchmark indices. The paper suggests moving away from the frequent changes and confusion caused by daily expiries. This has had a significant impact, with BSE stocks rising by 17.5% today. Interestingly, NSE, which had recently sought to shift its expiry to Mondays, may be sidelined as BSE appears to have emerged as a short-term winner. There are also talks of an NSE IPO being delayed by at least two years, which means NSE stocks remain an attractive unlisted option for those interested.

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