Where is the market headed?
Today was the expiry day on NSE, and the markets stayed very range-bound throughout the day. There wasn’t much movement on the external front either.
The news that Trump and Xi are going to meet soon has created a bit of risk-off sentiment, with precious metals coming down. Many people are seeing this meeting as the start of a new tariff equation, but I think it’s best to wait and see how it unfolds. It’s one day at a time on that front.
Meanwhile, more corporate results are coming out, and the big announcement today was that the government plans to allow FDI into PSU banks.
Market Overview
Looking at the Nifty chart, it was an absolute Doji day. A Doji is when the open and close prices for the day are almost the same. Today, we opened at 25,939 and closed at 25,936. This means there was no real body on the candlestick, which is called a Doji candle. It usually shows that the market is indecisive—it doesn’t know whether to go up or down.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior was down half a percent and hasn’t moved much in the last eight sessions.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Midcaps were flat at -0.01%, Small caps were up 0.09%.
Bank Nifty
Nifty Bank managed a small gain of 0.17%.
GOLD
Gold continued to slide, now at ₹1,17,400 for 10 grams, which seems like a reasonable level to start nibbling if you believe in the long-term story. Many people think gold has peaked and is done for the next few years, but I don’t believe so. Central banks are playing an active role in buying gold, and that won’t stop anytime soon. Every time gold dips, they come in as big buyers. So don’t get trapped into thinking gold is finished for good. It might just be resting before another move up.
SILVER
Silver also dropped by 1.93%, now at ₹1,38,900.
Advance Decline Ratio
The advance-decline trend today showed early strength, but by the end of the day, it settled flat, with 25 advances and 75 declines.
Heat Maps
The Nifty heat map was mostly red, with a few greens in metals and banks. Tata Steel, JSW Steel, State Bank of India, Kotak Bank, and SBI Life were slightly positive.
Among PSU banks, PNB, Bank of Baroda, and Canara Bank did quite well. Naukri and ICICI General Insurance were also among the gainers. On the losing side were Adani Enterprises, Hindustan Zinc, TVS Motors, and Siemens.
Mover Of The Day
The mover of the day was TTK Prestige, which surprised everyone with strong Q2 results. The stock jumped 10.7% and hit a new high.
Sectoral Overview
Sectorally, metals and PSU banks led the pack with gains of 1.23% and 1.21%. Nifty Realty fell 1%, and CPSE was down 0.87%. The capital markets, IT, and PSE sectors also fell by more than half a percent.
Over the last month, PSU banks have done extremely well with 11.3% gains, and Nifty Capital Markets are up 11.46%. This is quite a turnaround considering the fear seen just after the last expiry. Real estate stocks were slightly down today, but the sector still looks better than most others.
Metals, however, continue to shine, with Jindal Steel, Tata Steel, JSW, and SAIL all performing strongly.
Sector of the Day
Nifty Realty Index
Nifty Metal Index
U.S. Market
Globally, US markets were remarkable again. Nasdaq rose 1.8% in the previous session and is up 5% in the last month, and a massive 27% over the last year. These are stunning gains considering how many experts have been predicting a fall for months. But the market continues to stay strong. S&P 500 and Dow Jones are also doing well.
Qualcomm gained 11% in a single day, Tesla rose 4.3%, and Alphabet was up around 3.6%.
Tweets Of the Day
Reuters reported that the Indian government may allow direct FDI in PSU banks up to 49%, up from the current limit of 20%. Not many PSU banks even have foreign investments close to that limit, so while this change may not bring an immediate impact, it opens the door for future possibilities.
With recent private bank deals happening, we might even see some PSU bank transactions in the future. Looking back, PSU bank stocks have already rallied strongly over the past one and a half months, so maybe the price action had already factored in this news. From here, we could see some cooling off.
Lastly, a quick word on the 52-week high and low numbers. These numbers can tell us how the market is positioned. In an uptrending market, you’ll see many 52-week highs and very few lows. In a falling market, it’s the opposite. When the market is confused or range-bound, both numbers are closer together. Right now, we are somewhere in the middle—not too many highs, not too many lows. It will be interesting to see how this changes in the coming weeks.
