Where is the market headed?
Many investors are currently feeling disappointed with market performance, as indices are down 12% in 2026 and roughly 300 days have passed without reaching a new high. Placing this phase into historical perspective helps contextualize these movements. A recent tweet by Sumit Behal, analyzing over 30 years of market data, highlighted several extended periods where the Nifty went without making a new high. Following the Harshad Mehta era, from 1994 to 1999, the market went 1809 days without a new peak.
During the dot-com period between 2000 and 2003, 1400 days passed before new highs were achieved. Post-2010, another period of nearly 1094 days transpired before fresh highs emerged. Similarly, following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), from January 2008 to November 2010, the market experienced another 1000-day gap. Furthermore, during 2015 and the demonetization period, 742 days elapsed before new highs were recorded, forming part of a long historical list of market lulls.
The current consolidation sits at the bottom of that historical list, meaning the time required to surpass previous peaks could be any number above these past milestones. Market participants should avoid feeling disheartened simply because two years have not yielded returns, as the index has experienced much worse periods in the past and investors may potentially need to prepare for more time.
However, it is heartening to note that after every such waiting period, a glorious rally followed. Fantastic rallies consistently emerged after each disappointing period, including the post-dot-com rally, the bull run from 2003 to 2008, and the post-COVID rally. These challenging phases often serve to shake out all weak hands before the market begins its next major upward move.
Market Overview
Looking at domestic market performance on October 29th, trading delivered a solid session with the Nifty going up 1%. Short-term sentiment turned positive, looking much more solid compared to three to four days prior when doubts emerged that the market might break its recent low.
This positive momentum followed the US Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers held interest rates steady and did not hike rates overnight, giving additional confidence to the market. Broad market indices also gained, with the Nifty Next 50 up 1.2%, mid-caps up 0.8%, and small-caps up 0.6%. Bank Nifty performed quite well, advancing 1.18%.
Major Market indices
Broader market performance remained steady, with the Nifty Next 50 closing flat, while mid-cap and small-cap indices registered modest gains of a quarter percent. The Bank Nifty outperformed with a 0.54 percent gain, and the market advance-decline ratio closed evenly at 253 gainers to 242 losers, showing no clear advantage for either bulls or bears.
Heat Maps
The Nifty heat map appeared quite green, showing great moves in Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, ITC, Nestle, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, and Power Grid. Kotak Bank stood out by gaining 4.3% to reach a new all-time high, while State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, and Infosys also improved significantly.
The broader Nifty 500 was mostly green as well, with many stocks gaining, including Bsoft, Equitas, Poonawalla, Eternal, JSW Energy, Chola Finance, JSW, and Tata Motors.
On the downside, big losers in the CNX 500 included Hero MotoCorp and CarTrade, which really lamented during the session.
Advance/Decline Trend
Market breadth improved very nicely after 1:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m., ending with 331 advances to 164 declines.
Sectoral Overview
Overall, the market exhibited healthy breadth across sectors, with almost all closing in the green except Nifty Auto. Auto stocks corrected following the previous day’s run, as trading action adjusted ahead of monthly auto sales numbers expected over the next couple of days.
Real Estate pulled up very hard with a 2.75% rally, FMCG gained 2.3%, and PSU Banks advanced 2.2%. Key drivers pulling up the Real Estate index included Macrotech Developers, Phoenix Mills, Prestige, and Oberoi Realty.
Sector of the Day
Nifty Realty Index
U.S. Market Update
International markets also showed positive sentiment, as the previous session in the US closed in the green with a half-percent gain on the Nasdaq alongside milder gains in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. Top gainers included SanDisk, Qorvo, Nebius, GE Healthcare, and Micron Technology, with chipmaking and AI stocks leading the market through 5% to 7% gains. The day’s losers included Baker Hughes, Old Dominion, Fortinet, Teradyne, and Take-Two Software, some of which could feature in US weekend investing stock strategies.
A look at the heat map shows that major mega-cap names including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, SpaceX, and Tesla failed to move. Alphabet (Google), which logged a 1.3% gain during regular trading hours, crashed in after-market trading following its earnings results. While the chipmaker and AI space in the left corner of the heat map performed very well, losses were also observed in Palantir and Pandw.
Tweet Of The Day
In commodity highlights, the tweet of the day focused on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, where jumping trading volumes on a specific contract indicate that China continues to accumulate gold in big ways. While the current lull in the gold market is perceived as weakness by many, China is utilizing this price weakness to buy significant amounts of gold, driving huge trading volumes.
