Where is the market headed?
The week started well with markets rushing up, and at one point Nifty was more than 100 points higher. But the second half of the day wiped out all gains. Nifty came down and ended flat. While some parts of the market saw small gains, overall there is lethargy and listlessness in the market.
Gold, on the other hand, is on fire. Both gold and silver are racing. Gold has crossed ₹1,15,000 for 10 grams, and in dollar terms, it has already hit $3,815. At the start of this year, on 1st January 2025, gold was $2,600. In less than ten months, it has jumped more than 50%. Such a sharp rise is unprecedented. Maybe once in the 1970s we saw a similar year where gold gained over 50%. Gold is often a signal of stress in the world, and right now, it is telling us things are not in good shape. We can’t ignore it.
The metal is moving up so fast because situations are deteriorating rapidly. For Indian investors, it has also become the only real hedge for rupee assets, as the rupee remains weak against the dollar, even while the dollar itself is weakening against other global currencies. That makes the rupee double weak versus the rest of the world. It’s like the frog-in-the-pan syndrome — small increases don’t feel painful, but a 50% rise in nine months tells you something is very wrong.
Market Overview
Nifty almost touched 24,800 before slipping back to 24,600. That makes it eight straight red candles now. The market is oversold and lifeless, with Nifty down 0.08% for the day.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Jr. gained 1.03%.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Mid-Caps were up 0.25% and Small Caps slipped 0.1%.
Bank Nifty
Nifty Bank stayed flat with just 0.13% gain after a volatile day.
GOLD
Gold again stood out, jumping 17% in just one month. From ₹9,800 per gram, it has shot up to ₹11,513 per gram. This is something investors cannot ignore.
Advance Decline Ratio
Nifty 500 advances were decent in the morning when markets opened higher, but gains collapsed later. By the close, winners and losers balanced out, with 255 advancing stocks and 245 declining.
Heat Maps
State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Wipro, Titan, ITC, NTPC, and Trent performed well. On the other side, Maruti, Axis Bank, Jio Finance, Eicher Motors, Hindustan Motors, L&T, Bharti Airtel, JSW Steel, and ICICI Bank lost some ground.
In Nifty Next 50, more stocks were green, with Indigo, BPCL, IOC, Shree Cement, LIC, Bank of Baroda, PNB, Canara Bank, PFC, and IRFC doing well. Only a few like Pidilite, Swiggy, Adani stocks, Dabur, and Bajaj Holdings were weak.
Mover Of The Day
The big mover of the day was Wockhardt Pharma. After falling 9% on news of US tariffs on pharma, it surged 17% when it was clarified that India would not be impacted.
Sectoral Overview
Among sectors, PSU Banks gained 1.78%, Oil and Gas 1.3%, Public Sector enterprises 1%, Real Estate 0.8%, Capital markets 0.8%, and Energy 0.6%. Media and Defense were weak, with Defense Stocks down 1.43%. Over the last month, metals have led with 8.39% gains, PSU banks with 9.39%, Autos with 5.9%, Defense with 5.7%, and PSUs with 6.2%. PSU banks recovered well today after Friday’s heavy fall. Indian Bank, Bank of Baroda, Bank of India, Canara Bank, and SBI all did strongly. But in Defense, DCX, Cochin, Zen Technologies, GRSE, and Astra Microwave kept bleeding, losing 4–7%.
Sector of the Day
Nifty PSU Bank Index
Nifty India Defence Index
Tourism stocks have now fallen for eight straight days, with Chalet Hotels, Indian Hotels, BLS, and Jubilant all down. Investors are getting worried as they are not seeing returns despite high inflows in recent months. We will need to watch the inflow numbers at the end of this month.
U.S. Market
On 26th September, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, Dow Jones 0.67%, Nasdaq 0.44%, and Russell 0.97%. Over the last month, Nasdaq rose 4.79%, and in the last year, it has soared 24%. The S&P 500 has also done well with 15.57% gains. US markets remain dynamic, and diversification there is worth considering.
Stocks like Intel jumped after the US government took a stake, rising 4.4%. Tesla gained 4%, Boeing 3.6%, Accenture 2.7%, and Danaher 2%. Our team also manages a US portfolio, and interested investors can explore that.
Tweets Of the Day
One interesting chart today compared household investment patterns in India versus the US. In real estate, Americans put 30% while Indians invest 58%. In equities, Americans invest 32%, while Indians invest just 6%. This shows the huge runway for Indian equities. Even reaching 15–20% would be a big leap. In insurance and pensions, Americans invest 21% and Indians 10%. The biggest difference is gold — Americans just 1%, Indians 12%.
In fact, Indians put more into gold than equities and double of insurance. Real estate and gold together make up 70% of Indian household wealth. This explains why many are not missing equities. Those holding real estate and gold have also done well, and right now, both sides are smiling. Still, equities have strong potential to rise.
We also looked at data from the 2008 crisis.(see the image below). Many Nifty stocks then lost massive value. Unitech fell 92%, Suzlon 88%, Reliance Infrastructure 86%, Tata Steel 82%, DLF 81%, and Tata Motors 81%. Even top names like Reliance lost 62%, SBI 56%, Maruti 48%, HDFC Bank 46%, Infosys 30%, and ITC 25%. When markets crash, nothing is spared. Some stocks recover, but many never return to old highs.
Investors concentrated in names like Unitech, Suzlon, or DLF would not have recovered capital even after 10 years. The lesson is simple — cycles change, and we must adapt strategies. Crashes can and will happen, maybe tomorrow, maybe years later. Believing that quality stocks will save you is an illusion. Be prepared for when they fall.
