Where is the market headed?
It was expiry day, but markets remained sluggish for the fourth consecutive session. There’s no fresh trigger or good news currently to lift sentiment. However, these are minor moves that don’t hold much significance in the larger picture. The broader trend, as seen in the charts, remains intact.
Market Overview
For the fourth straight session, the Nifty remained sluggish. It hovered near yesterday’s high in the first half but slipped sharply post noon, likely due to weekly expiry pressure. With four consecutive down days now, a reversal could be on the cards. Historically, such phases often see a strong bounce-back. A recovery may be possible as early as tomorrow or Monday.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior declined by 0.54% today, marking its third consecutive day in the red.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Mid caps closed slightly positive, up 0.17%, indicating that the broader market hasn’t followed Nifty’s decline.
Small caps rose 0.37%, showing resilience and a clear willingness to move higher. However, the broader environment still lacks the necessary triggers for a stronger rally.
Bank Nifty
Banks, however, declined, with the index closing 0.36% lower. Some public sector banks also released their quarterly results, which failed to lift market sentiment.
GOLD
Gold remained stable today, up 0.59%, showing no signs of decline despite recent volatility. After a strong rally over the past 6–12 months, the key takeaway is that gold is refusing to break down. If it crosses $3450 (USD) or ₹10,200 per gram, a significant upward move could be triggered.
Advance Decline Ratio
The advance-decline ratio remained balanced by the end of the day at 248 advances to 252 declines. Declines initially eased during the morning session but picked up again later, mirroring the slight drop in advances. This reflects a broadly neutral market sentiment with no clear directional bias.
Heat Maps
The banking, insurance, and NBFC sectors ended in the red, with notable declines in State Bank of India, Kotak Bank, and SBI Life Insurance. Other heavyweights like TCS, Bharti Airtel, and Adani also saw some pressure, though without any sharp fall.
On the positive side, pharma and auto stocks showed strength. Maruti, Tata Motors, Hero, and Mahindra gained following better-than-expected June auto numbers.
In the Nifty Next 50, the trend was more negative. Stocks like Lodha, Bajaj Holdings, Chola, PNB, LIC, Indigo, D-Mart, Hyundai, Vedanta, Varun Beverages, and Tata Power declined.
Within capital goods, Siemens, Bosch, and Motherson moved up, with Bosch leading the day with a 6% gain, while ABB saw minor weakness.
Sectoral Overview
Capital markets were the standout performers yet again. The Capital Market Index surged 8.48% this month, making it the biggest gainer not just over the past month, but also one of the top performers over the past three and six months—up 17.6% in six months and a stellar 68.79% over one year. The outperformance versus other sectors and even the Nifty is striking.
For the day, capital markets and media stocks showed strength, while the rest of the market remained largely flat. On the downside, PSU banks led the losses with a 0.5% dip, followed by tourism and metals, the latter seeing some profit booking after yesterday’s rally.
Sector of the Day
Nifty Capital Market
The Capital Markets Index is on the verge of breaking out to a new high once again, supported by strong momentum in individual stocks. Motilal Oswal surged 8%, while 361 One Wam rose 3.9%, Aditya Birla Sun AMC gained 3%, BSE added 2.2%, and CDSL moved up 1.49%. This rally is being fuelled by the ongoing wave of listings and a robust IPO pipeline, with growing buzz around a potential NSE IPO as well. In such an environment, investors continue to seek balance in their portfolios, while capital market stocks lead the charge.
