Where is the market headed?
It’s the end of the week and the end of the month, and it has been a very dull week with no major moves anywhere. The market continues to wait for some trigger. Results have been all right, and a rate cut is awaited. US news is getting discounted—nobody really bothers now about what Mr. Trump is saying because nothing actually gets executed. A new term is being coined for this: the ‘TACO trade’, which stands for ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’. This label is now being given to any order he announces.
Looking ahead, we need new triggers to drive the market forward. Liquidity could be one such factor. The dollar index remains stubborn and hasn’t declined, while US yields are still near 5%. Some change is necessary to push our markets further.
There have been short bursts of movement in certain sectors and pockets this week, particularly noticeable in the Anil Ambani group of stocks and some PSU names like IFCI and ITI. This suggests a somewhat underlying reflation of small caps and some mid caps happening in select pockets.
Market Overview
Nifty declined by 0.33% today
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior is down by 0.50% as well
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Mid-caps are down 0.18%, while small-caps are up 0.32%.
Small-caps have been gradually inching up compared to the front end of the market, indicating relatively higher confidence in this segment. Additionally, small-caps have been more beaten down than large-caps, which could also explain the renewed interest.
Bank Nifty
In Bank Nifty, the index was up 0.37%
GOLD
Gold was also flat.
Advance Decline Ratio
The advance-decline trend stands at 199 advances to 302 declines.
Heat Maps
The Nifty heat map is largely red or gray today. Eternal/Zomato saw a strong pickup, with gains around 4%. SBI rose 1.8%, and HDFC Bank was up 0.9%. However, there were no other significant winners. On the downside, Bajaj Auto dropped 3%, while Tata Steel, UltraTech Cement, Sun Pharma, NTPC, and Nestle all declined, along with some IT stocks.
In the Nifty Next 50 space, notable declines were seen in Vedanta, JSW Energy, Lodha, and PFC. On the upside, Siemens and several PSU banks, including PNB and Bank of Baroda, moved higher. Canara Bank also gained, while Pidilite advanced by 2.5%. The rest of the Nifty Next 50 remained mostly muted.
Sectoral Overview
In the sectoral trends, PSU banks led the rally today with a strong gain of 2.86%, marking a remarkable surge out of nowhere for the day. Clearly, PSU banks have performed well both for the week and the month.
The second sector showing positive momentum was the Nifty Capital Market index, largely driven by the BSE, which has climbed to nearly 2,600 following the bonus issue. Reports suggest that the NSE unlisted space is also moving up rapidly—from around 1,600-1,700 just a few days ago to approximately 2,200-2,300 now—a significant jump in a short period, likely on strong IPO prospects.
The major action today was concentrated in the financial services and banking sectors. Meanwhile, other sectors cooled off, with metals down 1.6% and defense also slipping 1.1%, a rare decline for that sector.
Sector of the Day
Nifty PSU Bank Index
It is the highest gainer for this week, up 4%. Over the month, PSU banks have risen by 6.6%, showing strong performance both for the week and the month.
PSU banks broke out after a long time, with Bank of Maharashtra up 5.7%, Indian Overseas Bank 5.3%, Union Bank, and Punjab & Sind Bank also posting strong gains.
Nifty Metal Index
In the metal space, which lost the most ground today, Jindal Stainless fell by 4%, Vedanta by 3.6%, while Hindalco, Jindal Steel & Power, and National Aluminium also saw declines.
WeekendInvesting launches – The Momentum Podcast
This episode of THE MOMENTUM PODCAST features Manubhav, a third-generation real estate professional, sharing his unique journey navigating both worlds.
Discover:
✅ FROM PROPERTY TO PORTFOLIO: Manubhav’s transition from his family’s established real estate business to exploring equity investments.
✅ MARKET WISDOM: His candid experiences with market swings, including COVID-19’s impact on his SIPs, and lessons learned from F&O and smallcase.
✅ THE BIG COMPARISON: A fascinating look at real estate vs. equity returns, featuring real-world numbers from his family’s 40-year property investment.
✅ UNCOMMON INSIGHTS: Why gold is a family favorite and the surprising state of equity investing in smaller Indian towns.
