Welcome to the Weekend Investing Daily Byte for March 6, 2025! It’s another day of a market bounce, bringing some relief to investors after a rough patch. Are we at a significant bottom? Only time will tell—likely much later. For now, stocks and indices are edging up, offering a breather to those reeling from recent market panic.

Today, we’ll dive into market updates and then explore behavioral aspects that might be costing you money.

Where is the market headed?

Market Overview

The markets are up for the third consecutive day, with the Nifty 50 rising 0.93%. We’ve already recovered 700-800 points from the recent bottom in just three sessions. This pattern echoes late January and November—short-lived rallies that didn’t sustain. Will this one be different? Hard to say. For now, it’s a pullback, filling one gap but leaving another to test near 23,000. That level will be the real litmus test for sustainability.

A sideways move at 23,000 wouldn’t be bad either—it’d signal a new equilibrium where buyers and sellers agree to pause. After the drubbing we’ve taken, this relief rally feels good. Nifty Junior also joined the party with a 1.13% gain.

Nifty Next 50

Nifty Junior.

The small candle means that the buyers and sellers were really equally at it and could not really overpower each other. So we opened at 60,000 and pretty much remained at 60,000 the entire day. So buyers had the force to keep it there. Sellers also did not allow the buyers to run away with the market. So a nice sort of battle happening right there. 60,000 has been recovered. We were down to 56,000. So 7% or 8% has been recovered, and 1.13% on the Nifty Junior Index.

Nifty Mid and Small Cap

Small caps outperformed at 1.49%, jumping from 13,400 to 14,500 (1,100 points in three days)—a welcome bounce, though still modest after recent losses. Mid caps rose a quieter 0.5%, following yesterday’s bigger move.

Nifty Bank Overview

Bank Nifty edged up 0.28%, consolidating near 48,000. It didn’t fall as hard as others, so its muted rise isn’t surprising—it might lead once other segments catch fire

GOLD

Gold, meanwhile, slipped 0.61% to 55,500 (in rupee terms for 10 grams), stuck in an 84,000-87,000 range. This flag pattern could break down to 80,000 or surge past 90,000. After climbing from 74,500 to 87,000, a pullback isn’t off the table, but robust central bank buying and momentum keep gold fundamentally and technically strong.

Advanced Declined Ratio Trends

Breadth softened from yesterday but remains solid: 80% advances to 20% declines (366 vs. 133 on Nifty, 39 vs. 11 on Nifty 50). Mid caps and small caps lagged slightly at 68% advances.

Nifty Heatmap

The heat map glowed green, led by large caps like Reliance, TCS, and ONGC. Standouts included Asian Paints (up 5%), Tata Steel, Hindalco, and NTPC. Kotak Bank and Tech Mahindra were rare reds. In Nifty Next 50, finance names like Power Finance, IRFC, and REC shone, alongside Vedanta and Adani Green.

Sectoral Overview

Oil and gas topped sectors at 2.6%, with metals close at 2.3%—metals are on a tear, up 6.7% weekly and 6% monthly. Energy, commodities, pharma, and infra gained 1.5-2%, while real estate dipped 0.2%. Reports suggest Indian real estate prices look “toppish,” hinting at consolidation. With stocks already down 23% in three months, the market may be ahead of ground realities—price often leads, as we say, “Bhav Bhagwan Che” (Price is God).

Sectors of the Day

Nifty Oil and Gas Index

Story of the Day : Why You’re Losing Money: Behavioral Traps

The Real Culprit

Now, let’s shift gears to the day’s big topic: why you’re losing money. If you’re in the green, maybe skip this—but stats from regulators and my own broking experience say most investors lose. Not just in F&O or intraday—many underperform indices long-term, masked by fresh cash infusions and selective memory of big wins. Ask yourself: Do you know your returns over 5, 10, or 15 years? Most don’t. They feel they’re beating the market, but often they’re not—untracked investments hide the truth.

Execution Over Brilliance

Here’s a gem: “The average strategy executed perfectly beats a brilliant strategy executed poorly.” You don’t need genius—just discipline. Take Warren Buffett: His strategy isn’t rocket science. His brilliance lies in sticking to it, starting early, and letting compounding work over decades. Strip out Apple, and some argue he’d lag the S&P 500. The lesson? Execution and temperament trump a flawless plan.

Buffett’s Wisdom

Buffett says, “Investing isn’t a game where a 160 IQ beats a 130 IQ. Ordinary intelligence plus temperament to control urges—that’s what matters.” At market tops, FOMO drives newbies to overpay with no plan. At bottoms—like now—panic sellers dump, convinced it’s over. Markets rise when selling dries up and fresh capital flows in. It’s all supply and demand.

Munger’s Take

Charlie Munger adds, “High-IQ folks can be terrible investors with bad temperaments. Control raw emotion.” Spotting winners early means nothing without behavioral discipline— brilliance plus impulsiveness is a disaster.

Shelby Davis’ Insight

“You make most of your money in a bear market—you just don’t realize it,” says Shelby Davis. Value investors who stay calm during panic reap rewards later. Temperament beats knowledge every time.

Weekend Investing’s Simple Truth

Our strategies at Weekend Investing are dead simple: buy what’s rising, sell what’s falling. A third-grader could grasp it. Success hinges on execution. Give 10 people Buffett’s playbook—how many would profit long-term? Few, because temperament, not strategy, is the bottleneck.

Tuning Your Temperament

Before chasing the perfect strategy, tune your mindset. Corrections are temporary—history proves it, from U.S. centuries to India’s decades. Yet many now say, “India’s story is done; markets will tank further.” That ignores the pattern: two months, six months, or a few years—corrections pass. Let’s unpack some examples.

The GFC Crash (2008)

From 2001 to mid-2003, markets were lifeless—I ran a broking firm then and started a BPO because nothing moved. When 2003 sparked, disbelief ruled; an election crash followed. Nifty plunged from 6,300 to 2,265 (65%) in 2008. It took two years to recover, six to hit new highs (2014). Experts panicked, sold bottoms, and stayed out. Those with grit, seeing a mean reversion, thrived in the next decade. Panic sellers scarred themselves for life.

The COVID Crash (2020)

Nifty flatlined at 12,400, then COVID hit—38% down in 45 sessions. Economic doom was predicted: “Years to recover.” Yet, in under a year, we were back. Those who held firm, not chasing hype, won big post-COVID. What did you do then? Reflect on it.

IPO Frenzy (2021-2022)

Post-COVID euphoria fueled FOMO into IPOs. Paytm’s down 54% since listing (Nifty up 26%). Delhivery’s off 50% (Nifty up 37%). Nykaa’s down 57% (Nifty up 24%). Policybazaar’s up 5% (Nifty up 26%). Mankind Pharma bucked the trend—up 80%. Rationality preserved capital; hype burned it.

Past Predicts Future

In 22 years, two panics (GFC, COVID) rewarded resolve with massive gains. Why would today’s correction—however deep—differ? Stay invested, stick to your strategy, and endure the pain for long-term compounding.

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Psychological Barriers to Avoid

Fear and Panic Selling

Buying at tops and selling at bottoms is common—pigs (greed) top out, sheep (fear) bottom out. Bulls and bears thrive; pigs and sheep get slaughtered. Avoid FOMO buying without an exit plan—it’s a recipe for regret.

Loss Aversion

“I’ll sell when it hits my buy price.” If you bought at 100 and it’s 50, waiting for 100 is ego, not logic. The stock’s screaming you’re wrong—cut it and buy what’s rising.

Short-Term Thinking

Ditching a 10-year plan over a 15% dip is silly. Nifty’s fallen 72% before (2008)—it could again. Volatility’s baked in; don’t abandon ship mid-storm.

The Greed-Fear Cycle

Greed, enthusiasm, delusion, denial, fear—it’s a trap. Play the ups, cushion the downs, and stay in—unless your strategy keeps you in cash or defensive plays. As capital grows, random in-and-out gets tougher.

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Wrapping Up: Markets and Mindset

Markets are correcting—history says a bright future follows every dip. Whether we’ve bottomed or hit 18,000, opportunity awaits. Don’t flee; manage pain with your strategy. What mistake will you fix now? How has your temperament evolved? Share in the comments—I’d love to hear.

Please pass this along to friends or family under stress. I’ve heard heartbreaking news—investors passing away, heart attacks from market pressure. Don’t let it consume you. It’s a small slice of life. With health, we’ll recover wealth later. Cap your losses, allocate assets, and trade stress for peace—even if it means lower returns. Max gains demand max pain—choose wisely.

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