Where is the market headed?
The market faced a rude surprise on the morning of Monday, March 9, 2026, when crude oil began trading 23% higher than Friday’s close. By the end of the Indian session, a significant part of that initial jump had dissipated, with prices retracing from $119 down to nearly $102. While the trouble is not yet over, there are signs that the situation is becoming stressful for the US and many other global economies. There is a reasonable hope that this week will bring some kind of resolution, and all eyes are on the US President’s press conference tonight, where a roadmap for withdrawal might be announced.
It was a bloodbath across global markets today. The Nikkei fell 7%, South Korea dropped 8%, and multiple other Asian markets were down between 2% and 4%. India followed suit, dropping 2% to 3%, staying in line with global trends. US Futures also signaled distress this morning with the Dow futures down a thousand points. Much of the near-term direction will depend on how the US market reacts to the current situation today. Stock-specifically, while almost every major stock saw a fall in the 2% to 6% range, no single name stood out as being hit uniquely hard compared to the broader trend. Please ensure you read and fully understand the disclaimer as always.
The month of March 2026 has started with a massive 71% move in oil. If a one-month candle like this lasts the entire month, it would represent a black swan event.
A 71% move in such a short time is nearly unprecedented; while the late 70s saw strong moves and February 2022 saw crude go from $80 to $140, those moves were more graded over several weeks. This is a significant shock because the downstream impacts of expensive oil are vast. Raw materials like sulfur are impacted, affecting various industries and fertilizers, which can bring industrial machinery to a halt.
Market Overview
While the market currently looks headed down, it is important to note that out of the five sessions since this war situation began, four days actually started on a positive note. The market is not simply giving up; it is trying to build back up. Today, the market closed near its high of 24,000, recovering from an open and low near 23,700. The bulls deserve some credit despite being badly bruised.
Nifty Next 50
Both the Nifty Junior and Mid-cap indices are showing hammer-like or bottoming candles. While these are not yet confirmed and require more days of observation, they suggest that perhaps the selling is nearing a pause. After all, trees don’t grow to the sky and stocks don’t fall to zero.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Across the board, Mid-caps were down 2%, Small-caps fell 2.33%, and Bank Nifty dropped the most at 3%, though it also formed a pin candle that could potentially signal a bottom.
Bank Nifty
GOLD
Interestingly, gold is also struggling, down 0.8%, while silver lost 0.26%. This suggests a liquidity crisis where even entities like the Polish government are selling gold to raise cash.
SILVER
Advance Decline Ratio
The advance-decline ratio was quite flat today, with only 60 advances compared to 439 declines.
Heat Maps
A few stocks like Reliance, Infosys, Wipro, Bharti, and Sun Pharma escaped the fury. Reliance actually gained ground as refining margins are expected to improve. Conversely, banking, autos, infrastructure, and steel were hit hard.
In the Nifty Next 50, Adani Group, Power, Torrent Pharma, Divi’s Lab, D-Mart, Hyundai, and ICICI GI managed to avoid the downward trend.
Movers Of The Day
In other market movements, the India VIX rose 17% to near the 23 mark. Emcure Pharmaceuticals moved up 7.44% following the appointment of a new director.
Sectoral Overview
Sectorally, Nifty IT was ironically the strongest, up 0.08%, while Nifty Auto, PSU Banks, and Private Banks were the worst performers, falling 3% to 4%. In the auto space, Tata Motors, Bosch, Eicher, Maruti, and Bajaj were all smashed down 4% to 5%.
Sector of the Day
Nifty Auto Index
U.S. Market
This followed a red session in the US where indices fell 1% to 2.2%, with stocks like BlackRock, Intel, FedEx, and Caterpillar seeing significant drops.
Tweet Of The Day
A notable perspective shared by Dr. Jihoon Park suggests a potential sequence for how this conflict might end. The theory suggests oil may stay above $100 briefly, leading to a collapse in political support for the war in the US, followed by a withdrawal of forces. This scenario envisions a more radical regime taking power in Iran with enriched uranium going underground, while oil stays elevated due to the time needed to restart pipelines and terminals. The real cost of such a futile war would be a $3 trillion loss in market cap and a global recession. While these scenarios are being built, it is vital not to let them overcrowd your decision-making.
The common mistake many investors make is liquidating and exiting the market entirely during high-stress periods. Markets fall fast, but they can also recover so quickly that investors are left with “deer in the headlights” syndrome, unable to buy back in at higher prices. Instead of getting out, one should focus on asset allocation. If the market pain feels unbearable, it is a sign of being overexposed or over-leveraged. Proper allocation ensures that while pain exists, it does not lead to sleepless nights.
