When Gold Demand Beats Supply: What It Means for Prices

March 11, 2026 2 min read

Gold Demand Is Rising

Gold demand around the world is expected to stay very strong in 2026. The total expected demand is close to 4900 tons. This demand is divided into different parts like jewelry, bars and coins, central bank buying, and ETFs.

Source : The Kobeissi Letter on X

Gold price has also been moving higher as demand keeps growing. When we look at the numbers, it becomes clear that interest in gold is still strong in many parts of the market.

Jewelry Demand Still Strong

Many people believed that jewelry demand would fall because prices are high. But the estimates show the opposite. Jewelry demand is expected to reach around 1700 tons in 2026, which is about 100 tons higher than the previous year. This means people are still buying gold jewelry even when prices rise. Gold continues to remain a popular choice for savings and celebrations.

Central Banks Continue Buying

Central banks around the world have been buying large amounts of gold for several years. The buying has stayed close to 1000 tons every year. Even in the coming year, the expectation is around the same level. This steady buying from central banks shows that many countries still see gold as an important reserve asset.

Demand for Bars and Coins

Another important part of the gold market is bars and coins. These are usually bought by individual investors who want to hold physical gold. The expected demand in 2026 is around 1300 tons. This level is slightly higher than last year, showing that retail investors still trust gold as a safe place to store wealth.

ETFs Are Seeing Strong Interest

Gold ETFs have also started to see strong demand again. In earlier years like 2021 and 2023, ETFs saw outflows, meaning money was leaving them. But the situation changed later. ETF demand returned strongly and reached very high levels. In fact, the demand seen recently is among the strongest since 2020, and even stronger than the period around the 2011 gold peak.

Demand Is Much Higher Than Supply

The most important point is the gap between demand and supply. Total gold demand is expected to be around 4900 tons, while the world produces only 3000 to 3500 tons each year. The extra 1500 tons has to come from recycled gold, which means people selling their old gold. But this usually happens only when prices rise enough to attract sellers. When demand is much higher than supply, it naturally puts upward pressure on gold prices.

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    When Gold Demand Beats Supply: What It Means for Prices