Will India benefit if Trump comes in ?

India Could Benefit from Trump Presidency in 2025-2028

With the potential of Donald Trump returning to power in the 2025-2028 period, there is an interesting outlook on how global economies might be impacted. According to a global economic assessment by Nomura, India could be one of the most positively affected countries if this scenario becomes a reality. The reasoning behind this prediction is largely tied to the global commodities market and trade relations. India, in particular, stands to gain if certain conditions fall into place.

Stable Commodity Prices May Favor India

One of the key points in this outlook is the possibility of stable commodity prices during a Trump presidency. India, being a large importer of commodities like crude oil, could benefit from steady or lower prices. This would help reduce inflationary pressures and contribute to economic growth. Additionally, stable commodity prices can improve India’s trade balance, giving the country more room to allocate resources toward growth and development. In a world where commodities can swing wildly, stability could be a big plus for India.

Shifts in Global Investment Patterns

Another significant factor is the potential shift in global investments. If Mister Trump follows his earlier policies, he may focus on reducing dependence on China, which could benefit India. Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows may begin to favor India over China as global companies seek to diversify their supply chains. With the growing sentiment of moving away from China due to trade tensions and geopolitical issues, India is well-positioned to capture a larger share of global manufacturing and investment.

Manufacturing Could Expand in India

India could also gain as multinational companies look for alternative manufacturing hubs. There is speculation that manufacturing bases in places like Canada and Mexico may either slow down or shift due to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” policies. These policies often push for more production to happen within the United States. As a result, companies might reconsider their expansion plans in other regions, leading them to explore opportunities in India. This would align with India’s “Make in India” campaign, which aims to boost local manufacturing and reduce imports.

Geopolitical Tensions and India’s Advantage

Trump’s anti-China stance could further boost India’s position in the global economy. Tensions between the United States, China, and Taiwan have been a major topic in recent years. If Trump continues to take a hard stance on China, India could see increased geopolitical and economic benefits. By positioning itself as a neutral and reliable partner, India could attract more investment and strengthen its trade ties with Western nations.

Historical Precedents of Major Political Shifts

It’s important to remember that one person’s decision can have massive global implications. History has shown this time and again. For example, when President Nixon severed the dollar’s tie to gold in 1971, the price of gold surged dramatically over the following decade. This one decision had far-reaching effects on the global financial system. Similarly, a major geopolitical shift such as Trump’s return to power could reshape economic relationships and trends. Whether it’s trade, investments, or commodity prices, global politics often have a lasting impact.

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