The WeekendInvesting Newsletter

Another brand new initiative from our Research Desk is The WeekendInvesting Newsletter. This is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also linked to the videos we shoot, so you can choose to watch or read the content according to your preference.

Check out our past newsletters.

From the Research Desk of WeekendInvesting

Will Oil surprise the world soon ?

Despite the significant rise in prices of other assets and commodities, crude oil prices in rupee terms have remained relatively stagnant over the past six years. This anomaly raises questions about . . . .

Will the F&O market share really go down ?

The recent changes introduced by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to the derivatives market have sparked mixed reactions. While some market participants believe that these changes will have a significant impact on the market, others are more optimistic. What are these changes ?

India may get Trump opportunity

The upcoming U.S. elections are an exciting moment, not just for the U.S., but for many countries around the world. What happens in these elections could have big impacts on international trade. The results could lead to changes in global business relations, and one of the countries that could feel these changes deeply is India. Depending on who comes into power, India might be . . . .

Precious Metals to the Moon

There is a unique relationship between the S&P 500, which is a key stock market index, and gold. This relationship can be measured by looking at the ratio of the S&P 500 to gold. Over the years, experts have noticed that this ratio tends to break down at certain times, and when it does, it signals an important shift in . . . .

Gold CAGR in different currencies

Gold has long been a valuable asset for investors all over the world. It serves not only as a hedge to protect against economic downturns but also offers solid returns over time. Many people think of gold as something that . . . .

The world has too much money

In recent years, we have witnessed something remarkable—an incredible rise in the global money supply. Over the course of almost 100 years, the Federal Reserve slowly increased the money supply to around $4 trillion. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, this amount skyrocketed, jumping from . . . .

Gold price model working well

In 2020, Incrementum made a bold prediction regarding the price of gold. According to their model, they projected that by 2030, gold would reach a price of . . . .

India Households are strong

An interesting analysis of household debt as a percentage of GDP shows how different countries have handled debt over the last ten years. When we look at the numbers from 2012 to 2022, the changes in household debt tell us a lot about economic trends and stability. This comparison reveals that while  . . . .

India is climbing up in MSCI

The MSCI World Index is used to track the performance of stocks across various countries. Its goal is to represent the global marketplace and give investors a sense of how different countries contribute to the overall stock market. However, one of the most striking things about the MSCI World Index is how . . . .

Keep beating the Nifty

Investing in the stock market can be a daunting task, especially when looking at the historical ups and downs. But over the years, one thing is clear: investing in Nifty for the long term has shown promising returns, even when the market seemed unpredictable in the short term. A detailed look at historical data shows . . . .

WeekendInvesting Specials !

Should you expect a 10% to 15% correction ?

Markets this week

Nifty was dull and sideways this week. The previous week showed a downward trend, but this week remained mostly flat, except for Thursday, which saw a significant drop. We were forming a right shoulder on a longer chart, but that has been thwarted for now. We are also in a support zone, with several weeks of rotation around this level. Significant pivots exist just below 24,000 and 21,500, and if tested, those levels will be critical. The last two weeks’ candles suggest that the market is not inclined to move downward.

In a downward trajectory, you typically wouldn’t see pullbacks at the end of the week, but this has been happening for two consecutive weeks now. This is despite some poor results coming through, particularly from sectors like auto and FMCG. While auto two-wheeler results have not been impressive and FMCG discussions aren’t very positive, the market appears to be absorbing these setbacks with a “buy on dip” approach, and dips have been limited. This is good news for the market as of now.

Benchmark Indices & WeekendInvesting Overview

Nifty Next 50 index took a significant hit this week, falling by 1.5% compared to the CNX 200 and CNX 500, which dropped by 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. The Mid-Small 400 index fell by 0.6%, while the Nifty 50 saw a smaller decline of 0.4%, and small caps managed to gain 0.1%.

In line with the small cap’s minor gain, Mi 35 clocked 1.7%, Mi 20 saw a 1% increase, while Mi 25 lost 1.8%, and HNI Wealth Builder lost 1.1%. Overall, two strategies favored small caps while two others did not. Mi 30 lost 3%, HNI Capital Compound dropped 2.7%, and Mi India Top 10 underperformed the Nifty significantly, losing 2.4% this week. Overall, markets appear tentative, with continuing trends difficult to identify. As we’ve seen in the past, it’s hard to predict what the next month will bring, so the best approach is to execute your plan and hope for the best.

Sectoral Overview

Autos, particularly Bajaj Auto, had a tough week, leading to a significant decline. Consumption stocks also fell by 3.2%, with companies like D-Mart taking a heavy hit. Metals, FMCG, commodities, and pharma all recorded losses exceeding 1%. Net-net, the week was weak across these sectors. However, real estate saw a slight gain, and both PSU and private banks recorded upticks, despite the RBI governor’s comments that cutting interest rates could be risky. The Bank Nifty was up 1.8% this week, highlighting that markets can behave in unpredictable ways. Despite expectations that banks would fall following the RBI’s caution, they actually rose. Often, news like this is already factored in, leading to relief rallies afterward.

Pharma, IT, gold, and financial services have been the top-performing sectors over the past one, two, three, and six months. Gold, in particular, has been surging, ranking number one in both one-month and two-week momentum scores. Real estate has also gained momentum recently, and financial services have picked up strength alongside the banking sector. Pharma and IT have been top performers, indicating that the market is in a defensive mode, focusing on safer, low-beta sectors. This suggests that while the market may not surge or crash, it is likely to remain relatively stable. Money appears to be flowing into these safer sectors, as reflected in the momentum scores.

WeekendInvesting Strategy Spotlight

Mi India Top 10 – NTPC

In the Weekend Investing Strategy Spotlight, we look at NTPC’s chart. NTPC was stagnant for 15 years. In its first three years, it surged by 328%, but then over the next 13 years, it declined by 64%. However, in the four years that followed, it gained 518%. This highlights the difficulty for investors who entered during its initial rise and then faced a 64% drawdown over the next 13 years.

Many gains have been realized only in the last year and a half. Over a 20-year period, catching the right phases of a stock’s journey can lead to good returns without needing to hold onto the stock for the entire time. This is what we’ve seen with India Top 10, which picked NTPC at Rs 218 and has since made a nice gain.

These examples show that there is no need to predict or hold onto underperforming stocks. The key is to jump on when momentum begins. While this approach won’t always work, it increases the probability of success. The momentum strategy has allowed India Top 10, which focuses on Nifty stocks, to outperform the broader Nifty by giving more weight to strong performers.

For example, NTPC’s weight in the Nifty 50 is small, but India Top 10 allocated 10% to it, which allowed for stronger gains. The allocation strategy is crucial in momentum investing. Over the past year, India Top 10 has returned 55%, and since its live inception in August 2022, it has gained 72%. These are very robust numbers for a well-constructed strategy.

Rebalance Update

We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you can use the smallcase app or log in to weekendinvesting.smallcase.com to see the rebalance. A backup email is sent by mid-day Monday if you have not rebalanced by then and yet another one a

Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.

WeekendInvesting Strategies Performance

WeekendInvesting Products – LIVE Index Data

Many of you had asked us to make the index series of all WeekendInvesting Products available so that you could perform your own analysis and studies. You can find a link to the LIVE sheet here and also on the HUB under the support column in the content tab.

Disclaimers & Disclosures