Don’t rely on Chance !

July 8, 2024 2 min read

Understanding market trends is essential for making smart investment decisions. Let’s look at an example involving two stocks from the same family: Bajaj Auto and Bajaj Finance. Over the past year, Bajaj Auto has been one of the best-performing stocks on the Nifty, while Bajaj Finance has struggled. This highlights the importance of following trends rather than making predictions about future performance.

Comparing Bajaj Auto and Bajaj Finance

Over the past year, Bajaj Auto has shown impressive growth, increasing by nearly 110%. In contrast, Bajaj Finance has been stagnant, showing a slight decline of 0.2%. This difference in performance demonstrates why it is crucial to pay attention to current trends. Assuming that Bajaj Finance will eventually recover and outperform Bajaj Auto is risky and may not be the best strategy.

The Problem with Predictions

Predicting future stock performance is a challenging and often unreliable process. Relying on predictions can lead to missed opportunities and poor investment decisions. Instead, it is more effective to follow current trends and make adjustments as needed. Ignoring a rising stock like Bajaj Auto because of the belief that it might fall someday can result in missed gains. Similarly, continuing to invest in a struggling stock like Bajaj Finance in hopes of a turnaround can lead to losses.

Importance of Momentum

Momentum plays a significant role in stock performance. When a stock is in momentum, it tends to continue in that direction for a while. Bajaj Auto is currently in an upward trend, making it a strong candidate for investment. On the other hand, Bajaj Finance, which was once in momentum, is not showing signs of recovery. Recognizing and acting on momentum can help investors maximize their returns.

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    Don’t rely on Chance !