Where is the market headed?
Today is Friday, 6th of March, marking day seven of the conflict, and nothing seems to be letting up. In fact, crude oil is at its highest around $87, and the conflict seems to be in full force going ahead. Markets were a mixed bag today; large caps were getting demolished in a big way while the mid and small caps were still not so bad. Overall, the situation remains grim.
Private banking is the space that was really pulling down the market today, and we saw big private banks go down. It is not as if private banks were doing very well before the war, either. Since May 2025, which is almost a year ago, we have not really had any gains in private banking, and versus PSU banks, private banks are really looking weak. They are now also below the 200 DMA.
Whenever banking leads the market down, it is always very scary because banking is the first sector investors offload if they have concerns about the economy. When banking moves the market, it is usually a sure-shot move in that direction. Morgan Stanley has also expressed concerns about emerging markets due to the oil situation.
Market Overview
The Nifty was down 1.2% overall, marking the lowest close since this conflict started and approaching significant lows since early 2025.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior, however, was reasonably stable at 0.36%, nowhere near the lows seen on Wednesday.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Mid caps were down 0.68% and small caps were down 0.28%. It was refreshing to see small and mid caps withstand the onslaught better today.
Bank Nifty
The real damage happened in the Nifty Bank, which fell 2.15%, dropping much lower than Wednesday’s low and entering a complete tailspin. This remains a troublesome statistic.
GOLD
Gold is absolutely flat and is not going up even in a war-like situation. Perhaps gold has already discounted a significant part of the conflict, or there is too much selling pressure from investors meeting margin calls or reallocating funds. Silver is also flat at 0.74%.
SILVER
Advance Decline Ratio
The advance-decline ratio was 176 to 323, showing that advances continued to go down while declines went up throughout the day.
Heat Maps
Looking at the heat map, Reliance was a marginal gainer and ONGC was up 0.94%. However, the damage in banking was heavy: ICICI Bank down 3.2%, HDFC Bank down 2.3%, and State Bank of India down 2.2%. Axis Bank and Kotak Bank were also down. It seems some big funds are selling specific sectors. Zomato, Sriram Finance, Maruti, Bharti, IT, Seal, Hindustan Unilever, and L&T were all down with little saving grace.
In the Nifty Next 50, we saw big cuts in Chola Finance, Motherson, Adani, Ambuja Cement, Lodha, PNB, Hyundai, IOC, and BPCL. Some gains were seen in HAL, United Spirits, Solar Industries, Siemens, CG Power, Mazdoc—which has gone up two days in a row—ABB, and Vedanta.
Movers Of The Day
In the Mover of the Day segment, Ircon went up 9.9% following a proposal for a merger between IRCON International and RVNL. Kirloskar Brothers also rose nearly 8% after securing a large contract from Adani Power for 214 crores.
Sectoral Overview
Regarding sectors, only Defense was moving up rapidly at 2.77%. Over the last week, Defense is the only performing sector at 4.89%, while every other sector is down. Today, CPSE stocks had a small gain, but many sectors lost ground, led by private banks, financial services, real estate, PSU banks, and tourism. The bottom is not yet there; banking has made a new low for the week, suggesting we may go lower or consolidate.
Sector of the Day
Nifty India Defence Index
Defense stocks like Bharat Dynamics, MTAR, Mazagon, GRSE, and Paras Defense are all doing well as the world focuses on war and equipment.
Nifty Private Bank Index
U.S. Market
US markets were smashed in the previous session, with the Dow Jones down 1.5%, though the NASDAQ only fell 0.2% and the S&P 500 dropped about half a percent. Major losers included UPS, Philip Morris, Deere Company, GE Aerospace, and Goldman Sachs.
On the NASDAQ heat map, Avgo did well while Walmart and Costco collapsed, with small losses in Google, Apple, and Meta.
Tweet Of The Day
A tweet from Global Markets at Weekend Investing highlighted a Microsoft chart spanning 30 years. There was a 14-year period where Microsoft did not make a new high between 2000 and 2014. Ironically, during those 14 years, the company’s revenues went up 322%, yet the price remained lower than in the year 2000. Prices can trend differently than fundamentals because markets may overprice a stock initially.
For price trend players, the flexibility to not be in a stagnant stock for 14 years allows capital to grow elsewhere. Once Microsoft did break out, it went up 8x or even 12x. Since you can’t time it or wait 14 years, you must have a strategy for picking and exiting stocks.
