Where is the market headed?
From time to time, it is essential to recall where the long-term trends lie in the market and for gold. A revision of this data takes place almost every month, and when examining the gold performance over the last 25 odd years, a notable figure emerges: a 14.6% CAGR. Since the year 2000, and now in 2026, simply holding gold has yielded a 14.6% CAGR. This performance is far superior to many other asset classes.
Therefore, one should not dismiss any asset class based on a narrative against it; instead, examine the numbers, understand the reality, and act accordingly. It is evident that most portfolios containing gold over the last one or one and a half years—since the equity market entered a correction—have seen newer highs specifically because they were able to implement asset allocation. Gold has paid off and has fulfilled the role it is supposed to play during the last year and a half.
A 14.6% return is no joke. Furthermore, if one looks beyond INR gold returns to US dollar gold returns, the figure is 11.3%, which is slightly ahead of the S&P 500. Europeans are also enjoying 10.7% on the euro, while British folks are experiencing 12.1% in GBP. The Australian dollar shows 10.9%, there is 11.1% on the Canadian dollar, the Chinese yuan has a 10.5% CAGR, the Japanese yen has a 13.2% CAGR, and the Swiss franc has an 8.4% CAGR. For those who argue that gold returns are solely due to rupee depreciation, this list of all currencies demonstrates how they have performed over the last 26 years. This information comes from the Incrementum report, which should be read when time permits. It is a bible for gold investing that is released every year, containing facts and data that can be utilized to make investing decisions.
Market Overview
Let us move on to business. Today, Tuesday, 21st April 2026, the markets experienced another green day. Although nobody was expecting this kind of a run in the Nifty, it has happened. It was another day of upward movement, with a 0.87% gain on the Nifty. We are now closing in on the 24,500 mark; in fact, we have crossed it, and the next target could be somewhere near 25,200 if this trend continues.
Nifty Next 50
The Nifty Jr was slightly subdued today, up 0.69% and also above the 70,000 mark.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Mid caps were up 0.53%—not really in any rush today, just resting—and there is no problem with that. There was an 0.82% rise on the small cap index. Significant moves are occurring without there being any clarity on the ground.
Consequently, many people waiting on the sidelines to jump in once there is clarity will find that once that clarity arrives, there is nothing left in the market to make money out of. It should be very clear in one’s thought process that the purpose of being here is to take some risk, and that risk-taking ability is the reason why some money will be made. If one does not want any risk and decides to wait for the day when everything is fine in the world, there will be no money to be made at that point.
Bank Nifty
The Nifty Bank index rose 1.39% on the back of good moves in ICICI and HDFC Bank.
GOLD
Gold remained absolutely flat at minus 0.34%, and crude oil was also flat at 1.14%.
Crude Oil
Advance Decline Ratio
Advance-decline trends are very much in favor of advances, at 343 to 156.
Heat Maps
The heat map tells the whole story, showing a massive move in Nestle, ITC, Unilever, ICICI Bank, and HDFC Bank. Almost all those stocks that were not participating so far were participating today. Therefore, while many portfolios did not move along with the indices, the indices moved because most of the laggards performed well today.
In the Nifty Next 50 heat map, there were good moves again in the FMCG Consumer Non-Durable space, including Pidilite, Godrej CP, Britannia, United Spirits, and Varun Beverages, along with some decent moves from real estate and capital goods stocks. Some pharma names were in the red, and some commodity stocks were in profit-booking mode.
Movers Of The Day
In the mover of the day segment, PNB Housing moved up 8%, following a dividend announcement of 8 rupees per share and a good quarter four PAT. Lemon Tree moved up 7% following the latest expansion plans; it has lost a lot of ground in the past, but now it starts to look good.
Sectoral Overview
When looking at sectoral trends, Central PSE stocks are down 0.43%, which is not much, while pharma, PSE, metals, and oil and gas stocks are flat. Everything that was running in the last few sessions was flat today, including commodities. Autos are up 0.39%.
As mentioned, FMCG was running, with Nestle and Hindustan Unilever really powering the move today by 2.55%. Nestle’s results were beyond anybody’s expectation. This whole bogus narrative that was being made—that India’s growth is faltering and there is no demand in the rural sector—has been demolished by these results. Real estate is up 2%, private banks are up 1.5%, Nifty Bank is overall up 1.4%, and consumption stocks are up 1.2%. Time and again, people will bash the Indian market, and the Indian market will spring back up and surprise them; this has happened so many times that it is almost laughable.
Sector of the Day
Nifty FMCG Index
Nestle was up 6.5%, and United Spirits, Varun Beverages, Hindustan Unilever, and Dabur are some of the FMCG stocks that moved. FMCG has been a beaten-down sector, there is no doubt about it, but these results are very, very encouraging.
U.S. Market
The US markets’ previous session was a down session for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, although the Russell 2000 was up by 0.58%. Intel Corporation lost some ground at 4%, and Meta Platforms, Netflix, FV, and Colgate-Palmolive moved down. Some of these stocks could be a part of the weekend investing US stock strategy, but these are not recommendations.
The general Nasdaq 100 heat map also looks a bit red. Tonight, there is a speech by President Trump, and a lot of rumors are floating around that he may announce a permanent ceasefire, which is what is expected. Bets are being placed in the betting markets on shorting oil and on a ceasefire coming through.
Tweet Of The Day
Regarding the tweet of the day, a post by the Kobeissi Letter shows that in the last 40 to 50 years, the top 0.001% of US households have seen their real wealth grow by 3,500% since 1976. In the last 50 years, the top 0.01% have seen their wealth grow by 2,200%. As the base becomes larger, the top 0.1% have seen their wealth grow by 1,200%. There is a huge difference between the top 0.1% and the top 0.001%. Just imagine 1,200% and 3,500%. The top 1% is perhaps only 200% in terms of old households. An average household’s wealth went up 200%, whereas all these super-rich category folks saw their wealth grow by 1,200%, 2,200%, or 3,500%. The difference is that these households own assets. In a debt-ridden world, the only way to make money and stay ahead of the game is to have assets, whether they are real estate, gold, or stocks. You need to have real assets.
Whenever the world is overly indebted, as it is now, central banks and governments will try to have higher inflation. It may sound counterintuitive, but they will allow higher inflation to run for a long period so they can pay off the debt with the inflated monetary base. When inflation is present, assets will run, but purchasing power or salaries will not keep pace. If one is in a rented house and money is sitting in a bank FD, one is probably doing the worst disaster for oneself, as the money in the bank is not even keeping up with inflation. Thus, you are losing ground, and real assets are running away, leaving you unable to buy anything on that front either.
