Another week, more drawdown, more grind…The relentless FII sale has extinguished all the optimism in the markets for now. With the international press going hammer and tongs against the Demonetization drive, it looks unlikely we will emerge out of the swamp soon.
Maruti posted some Dec sales figures today which are very encouraging. I think other Dec numbers by Jan first week should help restore confidence. Banks (in Delhi) are dispensing cash with lesser difficulty. Reports from smaller towns is better.
Dollar is gaining strength as if Trump is the Pope in disguise. Can you really expect all USA engines to restart from Jan 20th ? or will his swearing in mark the sell on news point for the global dollar rally ?
Gut-feel says market is being very short sighted here.
Anyhow, back to our non discretionary grind. Mi50 lost in line with the market more or less. Closed the week at +33.83% vs 36.4% last week. Nifty is up 3.5% for the FY. Isn’t that pathetic:)
The draw-down calculations were redone based on % drop from peak (vs % change in gain as per earlier calculations). This does not change anything but the feel good 🙂 We are now down 10.79%. The worst so far has been 14.51% on Nov 21.
|VESUVIUS||1012||net 4.87% gain|
It is worthwhile to note that max gain in Vesuvius was about 30%. 🙁
Cash on hand is about 29%. Last few additions look a bit overbought and shaky but we shall play along.
Lets hope Santa brings a happier week next one. Merry Xmas!
My system says we have just made temporary bottom in Nifty on friday which may hold only till Trump swearing in (Mid Jan 2017) till than even 8250 NS looks difficult to cross.
Durable bottom in Nifty and Rupee and may be ‘the top’ in US bond yields only in first half of Feb 2017 (Same view since Sep 2016) after which your wish of new high in Nifty may be granted by market :-).
Can you pl tell if 29% cash is suggested by system?
8250 will be a relief for now if reached 🙂 . Yes, cash is 29pct.