Q3 FY24 has continued the momentum from the first two quarters but at a frantic pace. The index rallied in two out of three months of this quarter and made an All Time High at 21800, nearly 1600 points higher than the highest point of last quarter.
The global headwinds softened dramatically in the months of Nov and Dec with the USD Dollar index weakending, US yields dropping from 5% to 4.2% during the second half of the quarter and FII buying picking up on consensus that rate hikes are past us. However, There continues to remain a spectre of global recession, IT slowing down in CY24 and lack of overseas fund flow. India had another tailwind in this quarter with the ruling party securing regional elections and bolstering the chances of a full majority in the upcoming important National elections in May 2024.
The Indian market has incredibly sustained all the headwinds in the past year and is now forging ahead on the renewed confidence of political stability and sustained GDP growth. India remains one of the very few countries that have seen an All Time High in 2023. An all-time high occurrence is an important parameter in the journey of a stock or an Index as the probability of continuation becomes very high for the ensuing period.
Nifty gained over 10.7% this quarter and the surprise was the big move in the Nifty next 50 stocks at 18.5% ! Small Cap 250 and Midcap400 index continued the good run gaining 14.8% and 13.50% respectively.
For Q3FY24 within Weekendinvesting strategies notably, Mi MT Allcap was up 25.1%, Mi NNF 10 at 23.7%, and India Top 10 at 19%. All other strategies performed in line or beat the respective benchmarks.
Our belief in the concept of BBC (Bhav Bhagwan Che), a Gujarati saying which means that “Price is God” helps us follow the markets in a non-discretionary manner and we allow the markets to do the talking. This has been our sole mantra in the last nearly 8 years that we have been offering these services to tens of thousands of Weekendinvestors. Our 100% non-discretionary approach at times can lag the markets when markets make trend changes but over time, we have seen this perform much better than many other styles of investing. The historical CAGR returns experienced by clients and the resulting thousands of testimonials are proof to this claim.
The forecast for next few quarters as it stands today is that of optimism given the political and economic strong position and the potential of the culmination of hiking interest rates.
At Weekendinvesting, we will continue to walk our established chosen path of following our strategies to the Tee. All our strategies have a self-healing and self-correcting approach and will come around strongly after any drawdown period that we may face. The whole setup is like a high probability winning machine provided you give the strategies adequate time to heal if the market undergoes some damage.
This last quarter we have taken many new initiatives at Weekendinvesting.
(a) We had the Second Weekendinvesting Hangout meet in Bengaluru which was well received. We intend to meet in a new city every quarter or even earlier.
(b) We started the WI Chat Service on the weekendinvesting.com website that any new user coming to the website can ask direct queries from.
(c) The Weekendinvesting App now has more than 7500 users who use it for its super content and a free educational US strategy available there. The online chat system on the app has reduced the already quick response time for all Weekendinvestors.
(d) The online appointment system that was added in the App is gaining traction where you can have a one on one google meet based video call with our team to discuss anything.
(e) Our new daily newsletter that goes out to a large audience has gained traction and we have a good engagement with our audience there.
(f) We had a successful launch of the exclusive HNI segment and the first product therein called the HNI Wealth Builder that was sold out in 10 minutes of its opening given that this segment will have limited slots and a direct email and phone support service for the users.
(g) In the coming quarter we intend to enhance our HNI portfolio, refresh our existing product portfolio, and plan to upgrade our content delivery through YouTube and other channels to meet our target to educate youngsters on the importance of saving, investing and having a planned approach.
We strongly believe in the long-term India story and we believe that momentum strategies will continue to do very well in this India scenario of continuity of growth and liquidity flows. All we need to do is to ensure that we are riding the winners when it is favourable to us and defending our position when it isn’t.
All the best !
Q3 FY 2024 Video Analysis !
Download the WeekendInvesting App
Mi India Top 10 Performance
Mi India Top 10 is a Low Churn – Monthly Rebalanced – Rotational Momentum strategy that invests in Top 10 trending stocks from the robust Nifty 50 Universe. Nifty 50 is India’s premier benchmark index for stocks that are ranked as Market Cap of 01st to 50th on the NSE and is rebalanced twice a year. This strategy does not go to cash like other strategies in a downturn but attempts to extract some more beta from this group by staying with the strength within this group. The strategy allocates 10% weight at the beginning of each month to its ten constituents and rebalances it each month.
Mi India Top 10 has been extremely impressive clocking 19% returns compared to 10.7% on Nifty 50 taking the FY 24 tally to a fantastic 38% as against 25.2% on the Nifty 50. The strategy has managed to outperform the benchmark across all three quarters of FY 24 so far.
This is a solid performance for a strategy purely based on the Nifty 50 index.
Mi India Top 10 started off equaling its benchmark in the initial few months but eventually struck a phase of underperformance till about March 2023 post which a strong uptrend in the following 9 months has resulted in overall outperformance since start.
Mi NNF 10 Performance
Mi NNF10 is a rotational momentum strategy based on the Nifty Next 50 large cap index. It is a great substitute for capital that seeks investing in the indices. Nifty Next 50 is an index for stocks that are ranked as Market Cap of 51st to 100th on the NSE and is rebalanced twice a year. These large cap stocks have a higher volatility than the Nifty stocks. This strategy does not go to cash like other strategies in a downturn but this strategy is able to extract some more beta from this group by staying with the strength within this group. The strategy allocates 10% weight at the beginning of each month to its ten constituents and rebalances it each month.
Mi NNF 10 has rocked the show putting on a spirited run this FY 24 clocking a massive 61% compared to 41% on its benchmark, the Nifty Next 50 index. The strategy has outperformed the benchmark in all three quarters of FY 24 taking the total absolute returns tally since going live on 12 Nov 2022 to 122% compared to 83% on the Nifty Next 50 index.
The strategy put up a strong performance all the way till Sep 2022 but saw a sharp drop around Jan 2023. The strategy was still on par with its benchmark despite the fall but staged a massive recovery from Apr 2023 to record 61% this FY 24 with one more quarter to go.
Mi Evergreen Performance
Mi Evergreen is a dynamic strategy which aims to outperform the underlying benchmark CNX200. This index comprises 200 large and mid-cap names which are the top-quality stocks in the markets. This product is suitable for use in all stages of the market cycles as it is designed to invest in the strongest stocks in the pack at any point. Additionally, there is a permanent hedge of Gold available here.
Mi Evergreen has put up a great performance this FY 24 beating its benchmark, the CNX 200 index across all 3 quarters so far. Q3 FY 24 performance stood at a solid 17.8% compared to 12.3% on CNX 200.
In the first three quarters of FY 24, Mi Evergreen recorded 50% gains against 31% on its benchmark.
The additional hedge to gold comes in handy during times of stress in the markets thus preparing really well for upside when uptrends resurface. Mi Evergreen has consistently beaten the benchmark after tracking it for a brief while post launch.
The absolute returns stand at a solid 63% compared to 30% on the CNX 200 index (a 2x beat). CAGR is currently at a very healthy 28% compared to 14% on the benchmark.
Mi EverGreen Intro Video | Mi EverGreen Blog Post | Mi EverGreen Consolidated Document
NG 5050 Performance
This portfolio invests in Nifty and Gold ETF in equal proportion and balances the weights every month. It is designed as a FREE alternative to market instruments that despite having higher risk are unable to deliver appropriate returns.
The strategy highlights the high inverse correlation between Nifty and Gold and how combining the two can result in a very low volatility outcome with superior returns than most low risk strategies. The strategy allocates equally to the two asset classes and rebalances it at the end of each month.
NG 5050 has churned out incredible performance for a free strategy. Though there may not be outperformance against the benchmark, Nifty 50. The aim of the strategy remains to offer a stable low risk option beating inflation and the strategy has delivered quite well on those terms.
The above chart showcases the remarkable stability in the portfolio. Between Oct 2021 and Apr 2022, Nifty 50 was dropping while NG 5050 made a new all time high. The total returns stands at 48% compared to 65% on the benchmark.
Mi 20 Performance
Mi 20 is a portfolio of up to 20 stocks that aims to create sizeable alpha with trending stocks from the Mid-Small Cap 400 Index using the principles of Rotational Momentum. The strategy is rebalanced weekly and allocates 5% to each new entrant. The strategy is only available in the smallcase format.
Mi 20 has been a BLOCKBUSTER for WeekendInvesting right since its launch and more so in FY 24. This strategy has been our best performer clocking a whopping 95% this FY 24 with remarkable outperformance across all Quarters. The midcaps have been quite strong comparatively but the strategy’s ability to extract alpha from the benchmark was fully on display this FY 24.
Mi 20 had always showed immense potential right from start but the spirited run in FY 24 is a testament and reward for all folks who showed faith and patience during 1.5 years of choppiness prior to this uptrend.
The strategy’s CAGR is currently at an exceptional 42% compared to 21% on the mid-small 400 index (again a 2x beat)
HNI Wealth Builder Performance
HNI Wealth Builder is an up-to 50 stock weekly rebalanced portfolio that follows momentum trends among small cap and mid cap stocks only. These stocks are filtered for average min volume and market capitalization above 1000 crores only. The stocks that are picked are allocated an exposure of 2% per stock in the portfolio. This is one of our very popular portfolios and it has consistently outperformed the benchmark index by a wide margin despite the large diversification.
HNI Wealth Builder has been very robust this FY clocking a massive 71% compared to 53% on Mid-Small 400 index. Q4 FY 2024 performance stood at 15% vs 13.5% on the benchmark. This strategy was included in the HNI segment in Nov 2023 and was sold out within 10 minutes of open.
As you can see from the above chart, the strategy was pretty much in line with its benchmark till about end of March 2023 but the strong uptrend leading to a widening gap speaks about the ability of the strategy to capitalize on trends really well and offer protection during weak times by virtue of dynamic cash allocation and vast diversification.
The CAGR since launch on Smallcase is at a solid 36% so far compared to 28% on Mid-small 400 index.
Mi 25 Performance
Mi 25 is an up-to 25 stock weekly rebalanced portfolio that follows momentum trends among small cap stocks only. These stocks are filtered for average min volume and market capitalization above 1000 crores only. The stocks that are picked are allocated an exposure of 4% per stock in the portfolio. This is one of our very popular portfolios and it has consistently outperformed the smallcap index by a wide margin.
Mi 25 has stayed in line with its benchmark right since launch and also in FY 24. Q3 FY 2024 has been decent at 17% compared to 15% on Smallcap 250 index.
In FY 2024 (3 quarters), Mi 25 has clocked 60% which is in line with the benchmark. This may not be exceptional but we hope the strategy will be able to deliver outperformance in the times to come.
As you can see from the chart, Mi 25 has performed in line with the benchmark since going LIVE on Smallcase. The biggest USP of this Smallcap product is its ability to dynamically go to cash when markets become weak which is what we exactly witnessed back during covid fall as well.
The CAGR at present stands at 39% which is also in line with the Smallcap 250 index.
Mi 35 Performance
Mi 35 is a dynamic strategy which aims to outperform the underlying benchmark Smallcap250 index. These are the 251st -500th stocks in the market place. This product is suitable for use in all stages of the market cycles as it is designed to remain invested in the strongest 35 stocks in the pack regardless of market conditions.
Mi 35 has done exceptionally well this FY 24 beating its benchmark, the smallcap 250 by a very healthy margin. Q3 FY 24 performance stands at a decent 18% compared to 15% on the benchmark
Mi 35 has returned 2x since launch on 15 July 2021 at a CAGR of 35% compared to 20% CAGR on the Smallcap 250 index. The sharp surge post March 2024 has widened the gap between the strategy and its benchmark by a healthy margin.
Mi 35 Intro Video | Mi 35 Blog Post | Mi 35 Consolidated Document
Mi 30 Performance
Mi 30 is an up-to 33 stock weekly rebalanced portfolio that follows momentum trends among constituents of the CNX500 index. The CNX500 index comprises the largest 500 stocks in the NSE universe. These stocks are filtered for average min volume and market capitalization above 1000 crores only. The stocks that are picked are allocated an exposure of 3% per stock in the portfolio. This is one of our very popular all cap portfolios and it has consistently outperformed the underlying index by a wide margin.
Mi 30 has quite well this FY 24 clocking a healthy 50% gain compared to 33% on CNX 500. The performance in FY 24 has remained quite similar to the benchmark but the big beat in Q2 FY 24 has helped the strategy put up a stronger FY 24 figure compared to CNX 500.
The strategy’s CAGR stands at a respectable 22% compared to 17.7% on the CNX 500 index. This strategy is a slow moving – conservative – multicap vehicle for those who are seeking such characteristics in a portfolio.
Mi MT Allcap Performance
Mi MT Allcap is a 20 stock weekly rebalanced portfolio that follows momentum trends among all listed NSE stocks. These stocks are filtered for average min volume and market capitalization above 1000 crores only. The stocks that are picked are allocated an exposure of 5% per stock in the portfolio. This is one of our longest running portfolios and has also consistently outperformed the benchmark index by a decent margin.
Mi MT Allcap has put on a brilliant show in Q3 FY 2024 clocking 25% compared to 12.4% on CNX 500 index. The overall performance in FY 24 stands at a superb 63% against 33.5% on its benchmark.
The above chart speaks volumes about the self correcting nature of the strategies. Mi MT Allcap went through a slump between Jan 2022 and Feb 2023 but has come back extremely sharp since the start of FY 24.
Mi ST ATH Performance
Mi ST ATH is a firebrand upto 10 stock portfolio that follows the short term momentum trends among all listed NSE stocks above market capitalization of INR 1000 cr and chases stocks hitting All Time Highs or multi year highs. The strategy is nimble footed and can have a higher churn.
Mi ST ATH has not quite lived up to the mark this FY. The strategy has churned out numbers in line with its benchmark but the performance has surely been average at best. Both FY 2024 and Q3 FY 2024 performance of Mi ST ATH is in line with that of the CNX 500 index.
As you can see from the chart above, Mi ST ATH has just about emerged out of a long consolidation phase to record a new all time high since Nov 2021. Such phases are quite common and this is similar to what we saw on Mi MT Allcap as well. The current CAGR is at a very decent 31% compared to 15% on the CNX 500 index.
Mi ST ATH Intro Video | Mi ST ATH Blog Post | Mi ST ATH Consolidated Document
Mi ATH 2 Performance
Mi ATH 2 is a high risk , up to 10 stocks strategy that aims to create sizeable alpha by chasing stocks near their all time or multi year highs from the all listed NSE stocks above Market Cap of 500 crore. The strategy is nimble footed as it seeks to minimize losses by quickly exiting stocks that fail to trend up.
Mi ATH 2 has come back quite strong in FY 24 recording gains of 56% compared to 33% on the CNX 500 index while Q3 FY 2024 numbers remained in line.
The strong outperformance in FY 24 comes on the back of a spectacular run in Q2 (a 4x beat).
Mi ATH 2 had a poor start since launch but has staged a strong comeback this FY 24 as mentioned earlier. The current CAGR is back in positive and is currently in line with CNX 500 at about 14%. This is a high risk strategy capable of extracting alpha especially during strong momentum markets. Investors have been kind enough to stay patient during the tough times.
That’s a wrap on Q3 FY 2024 report.
If you have any questions , please send us an email to email@example.com