A Possible Rhythm for the Market
According to Zafar Shaikh (@InvesysCapital on X) from Indices Capital, the Indian stock market appears to have followed a surprisingly symmetrical pattern since the onset of COVID-19 (see the image below).
He has observed a repeating structure of strong upward movement lasting for about 1.5 years, followed by a 1.5-year consolidation period. While the sample size is admittedly small—just two full cycles—the alignment so far is striking.
The First Cycle: 19 Months of Gains
After the COVID crash, the Nifty 500 index surged from around 6,000 to 15,000 during a powerful 19-month bull run. This marked the first leg of the pattern, characterized by strong investor sentiment and a rapid recovery in both fundamentals and valuations.
Followed by 17 Months of Pause
Following this surge was a period of sideways movement lasting about 17 months. During this time, the market digested prior gains, adjusted to global uncertainties, and consolidated its position—serving as a typical breather after a major rally.
Second Advance: Another 18-Month Rally
Beginning in early 2023, the Nifty 500 started climbing steadily once again. This second upward phase also lasted close to 18 months, aligning closely with the previous cycle’s timeline.
Current Consolidation: What Lies Ahead?
Currently, the market has been in consolidation for approximately 9 months. If the observed pattern persists, an additional 7 to 9 months of sideways action could be expected, setting the stage for a potential fresh rally in the second half of 2025.
No Guarantees, Just Possibilities
Of course, this remains a hypothesis. Market cycles do not follow fixed scripts, and past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes. However, the rhythm observed so far serves as a reminder that rest phases are often a natural part of long-term bull markets.
What do you think? Will the market follow this pattern again? Share your thoughts in the comments below! If you found this blog interesting, don’t forget to SHARE it with your friends!
