The Good Bad and Ugly weekly review : 21 Jun 2024

June 22, 2024 9 min read

The WeekendInvesting Newsletter

Another brand new initiative from our Research Desk is The WeekendInvesting Newsletter. This is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also linked to the videos we shoot, so you can choose to watch or read the content according to your preference.

Check out our past newsletters.

From the Research Desk of WeekendInvesting

India is a buy on dip market

In the last ten years, the Nifty index has experienced seven instances of single-day drops greater than 5%. The first notable fall occurred in August 2015, when the index dropped by 5.9%. It took more than 210 . . .

Fund Flows Rule!

Recent reports indicate a significant surge in fund inflows in May. Small cap fund inflows rose by about 500 crore, mid cap funds increased even more, and large cap funds nearly doubled. In contrast, ELSS funds saw . . .

Unlimited compounding potential

Looking at the best performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last five, ten, fifteen, and twenty years reveals some incredible returns. In the past five years, stocks like Super Micro Computer have surged . . .

The Options Epidemic

The Indian options market has seen a tremendous rise in trading volumes over the past decade. In 2013, India’s trading volumes were only a fraction of the U.S. market. However, from 2018 and 2019, India started gaining a significant share in the options market. The increase in trading volumes has been . . .

No down days can make us overconfident

Our behavior plays a huge role in how we see the markets. If we see the same market trend every day, it becomes a habit. Doing the same process repeatedly makes us think that . . .

Bonus & Split Psychology explained

In this blog, we discuss bonuses and stock splits, and how they affect investors. You might have heard about companies giving bonuses like . . .

Are you surprised by this data ?

In this article, we dive into an interesting analysis of the BSE Sensex, the BSE Mid Cap, and the BSE Small Cap indices. This comparison spans from April 2005 to 2023. The data reveals surprising insights about the performance of these indices over the years.

Timing the markets is futile

Timing the market can be very tempting for many investors. The idea of buying before prices rise and selling before they fall sounds appealing. However, the reality is that most people cannot do this successfully. Even experienced investors struggle with market timing. This is a powerful reminder that . . .

WeekendInvesting Specials !
Markets this week

This week, Nifty remained flat, with no significant movement over four trading sessions. After the initial recovery from the election day results, the market showed a lack of momentum, suggesting it is in a resting phase. The market’s inactivity indicates a period of consolidation, with the weekly candle also showing minimal action. This lull suggests that the market is waiting for the next significant trigger to initiate movement.

Benchmark Indices & WeekendInvesting Overview

This week, Nifty showed a slight increase of 0.2%, essentially remaining flat. The CNX 500 and CNX 200 also showed minimal movement, with gains of 0.1% and 0%, respectively. The Nifty Next 50 saw a slight decline of 1.1%, while mid and small caps experienced some activity, rising by 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively. As we approach the end of the first quarter of FY 25, small caps, mid caps, and Nifty Next 50 have performed notably well, achieving gains of around 19%, which is impressive for such a short period.

This week, Mi ATH 2 stood out with a 3.7% gain, bringing its FY25 performance to 17%, significantly outperforming the CNX 500’s 9.8%. Mi 35 gained 1.3% this week, aligning with small caps and achieving a notable 23.5% in FY25. Mi 25 rose 1%, while NG 5050, a free strategy investing in gold and Nifty ETFs, increased by 0.8% this week and reached 7.2% in less than a quarter. HNI Wealth Builder performed well at nearly 19% in FY25, up 0.8% this week, with Mi 20 remaining a top performer at 26% in FY25 and 0.7% this week.

HNI Capital Compounder achieved 23.4% in FY25, compared to 8.4% on the CNX 200. Mi Evergreen remained flat this week, while Mi MT Allcap was also flat but reached 11.2% in FY25. Mi 30 and Mi India Top 10 lost ground, with the latter dropping 1.3%, yet still slightly ahead of Nifty at 7.2% versus 5.3% in FY25. Mi NNF 10, despite falling in line with Nifty Next 50, performed reasonably well in FY25. Mi ST ATH experienced a 3.2% loss this week but maintained a 10.5% gain in FY25, outperforming the CNX 500’s 9.8%.

Sectoral Overview

This week, private banks led the market rally, gaining 4%, which contributed to a 1.7% rise in the Bank Nifty. The market displayed a relay race pattern, with different sectors taking turns to support it. IT moved on one day, metals on one or two days, and private banking on two days. However, other sectors did not fare as well. Energy, infrastructure, consumption, pharma, public sector enterprises, FMCG, and autos all lost ground.

In the auto sector, concerns about a slowdown are rising as manufacturers offer discounts and inventories pile up. FMCG is also underperforming, reflecting a disconnect between stock movements and on-ground reality, suggesting a potential market cool-off soon. Public sector enterprise stocks declined this week but have surged 16% for the financial year. Real estate continued its impressive performance with a 25% gain in the first quarter, following a triple-digit gain last year. Metals also showed strong performance with a 21% gain, highlighting its resilience.

Sector rotation plays a crucial role in ensuring capital remains deployed in high-performing areas, avoiding stagnation in underperforming sectors. Currently, real estate maintains the top spot across various time frames, while other sectors lag significantly. Autos are losing momentum, and public sector enterprises, PSU banks, and infrastructure are also receding month-on-month. Consumption and the bank index have lost ground recently, indicating a general market stagnation and loss of momentum, especially among larger cap names. The market seems to be awaiting a trigger, likely from budget expectations.

Speculation surrounds potential tax cuts for the salaried class, which could boost consumption if implemented. Another significant concern is the potential reclassification of FNO (Futures and Options) as speculative rather than business income. If such a reclassification occurs, it could lead to a reduction in volume and interest in that segment, particularly if accompanied by unfavorable tax implications, which would negatively impact the market.

WeekendInvesting Strategy Spotlight

Why hold when there is no performance ?

Sometimes, stocks do not perform well, and it can be frustrating. Let’s take ITC as an example. Over the last year, ITC has not done much after reaching a high near Rs 500. It has fallen about 18% from that peak. Although the long-term trend looks okay, the medium-term trend shows stagnation.

Looking at data from the past 30 years, there have been many long periods where ITC did not gain much. For example, from 1999 to 2005, ITC did not see any net gain for six years. Again, from 2006 to 2010, it stayed in a range. Similar stagnation happened from 2013 to 2017 and now, once more, it is consolidating. About 15-20 years out of the last 30 years have been spent in these frustrating periods.

To avoid such stagnation, momentum strategies can be helpful. These strategies help investors to avoid bear phases and use their capital more effectively. When you are not stuck in losing stocks, you can avoid the negative energy that comes with it. It can be very demotivating to sit with stocks that are not performing well. By focusing on winners, you can feel more positive and optimistic about your portfolio.

By not holding onto losing stocks, you can avoid the uncertainty and negativity they bring. Instead, focus on stocks that are performing well. Momentum investing, in particular, has been shown to be an effective strategy. Studies have shown that momentum is one of the best factors for investing. Even if the returns are similar to other methods, momentum investing can make the journey less painful.

One effective strategy is the Mi India Top 10. This strategy focuses on large-cap names from the Nifty 50. Each month, it selects the ten stocks with the highest momentum. You invest in these ten stocks and review the portfolio a month later. If a stock needs to be replaced, you do so, keeping only the healthiest stocks in your portfolio. Over time, this method can help create an alpha, meaning it can outperform the Nifty.

Rebalance Update

We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you can use the smallcase app or log in to to see the rebalance. A backup email is sent by mid-day Monday if you have not rebalanced by then and yet another one a

Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.

WeekendInvesting Strategies Performance
WeekendInvesting Products – LIVE Index Data

Many of you had asked us to make the index series of all WeekendInvesting Products available so that you could perform your own analysis and studies. You can find a link to the LIVE sheet here and also on the HUB under the support column in the content tab.

WeekendInvesting Telegram and YouTube Channel

We post daily content related to investing on our Weekendinvesting Telegram Channel and YouTube channel to help our community take stock of the performance of markets, sectors & our products and touch base upon a new topic every day. We look forward to having you all there! Several videos in this blog are from this series.

Introducing M Profit

That’s it for this week. See you in the next week’s review

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    The Good Bad and Ugly weekly review : 21 Jun 2024